UFC Fight Night Thompson vs. Holland: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
The UFC is back after a week off, and they are in Orlando, Florida, for a fun fight night card. The main event is between Stephen “Wonderboy†Thompson and Kevin Holland, which is an intriguing striking matchup. This card features several ranked fighters and fan-favorite veterans from beginning to end and should be an exciting card.
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Leg 1: Kyle Daukaus money line (-215)
Kyle Daukaus is fighting Eryk Anders in the middleweight division to lead off the main card. Both men are entering this bout off a loss, with Anders losing his last two. Daukaus is two inches taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. He should be the bigger man in the octagon, especially once they rehydrate after weigh-ins. He lands 3.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.56 strikes. Anders lands 3.26 strikes and absorbs 4.20 strikes, so Daukaus should be the more technical fighter on Saturday.
Daukaus is also a slick submission artist who has won nine fights via submission. He averages 2.36 takedowns per 15 minutes and uses his wrestling to set up submission attempts. Anders also uses wrestling to set up ground and pound. He averages 1.57 takedowns per 15 minutes but may have trouble taking Daukaus (86% defense) down. Whether he wins by submission or a decision, expect Daukaus to get his hand raised.
Leg 2: Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich does not go to decision (-750)
This leg almost does not require an explanation. Tai “Bam Bam†Tuivasa is a fan-favorite for his post-fight “shoey†celebration and exciting fight style. He is not afraid to stand and trade with some of the biggest, fiercest fighters on the planet, which speaks volumes of his confidence. He has been to the distance twice in his career: a win over Andrei Arlovski, who has transitioned into a point-fighter in the latter part of his career, and a loss to Blagoy Ivanov, who has also been competing at an extremely high level for a long time.
His opponent, Sergei Pavlovich, is nothing like those guys. Only 19% of his fights have gone the distance, all coming outside the UFC. He has not left the first-round while in the UFC, however. He also has a massive nine-inch reach advantage, which he could utilize to stay out of range of Tuivasa’s power shots. Tuivasa will force the issue, though, and one of these big men will come out on the better end of it.
Leg 3: Rafael Dos Anjos money line (-540)
Rafael Dos Anjos is moving up to welterweight after being knocked out by Rafael Fiziev in the fifth round of his last fight. There is no shame in losing to Fiziev, one of the best strikers in the lightweight division. Dos Anjos has held the belt at lightweight and fought some of the best fighters to enter the octagon. After losing his belt, he moved to welterweight and fought the best of the best there. His opponent, Bryan Barbarena, has also fought in both divisions but has mainly been at welterweight. He has fought some elite competitors but does not have as many notable victories as Dos Anjos.
Dos Anjos averages 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes and will likely use his grappling in this fight. Barbarena defends 55% of takedowns but does not shoot many of his own. Barbarena tries to win via his cardio and volume on the feet, which is not a great way to fight against Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos is also known for his excellent cardio that he has put on display in multiple five-round fights. In a three-round fight, Dos Anjos should be able to control Barbarena on the ground and negate Barbarena’s best qualities.
Parlay: -104 on DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting enough to win one unit is the best way to attack it. The main event starts at 10 p.m. EST on ESPN+.
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