UFC on ABC: Max Holloway vs. Calvin Kattar Betting Guide
In what has been one of the longest layoffs in years for the UFC, it’s been nearly a full month since we last had a night of fights from the company. While the future of big events here in the United States still remains in question, the UFC will take its talents back to the other side of the world as it hosts three fights in eight days on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi.
Before the three-fight run is capped off by the much anticipated Poirier vs. McGregor 2, we get underway in 2021 with a fight that could very well rival it. The #1 challenger and former champion in the featherweight division, Max Holloway, will face off against one of the more underrated challengers in the division in Calvin Kattar.
With the winner poised for a big payday and likely a future shot at the belt, let’s take a closer look and see where we can find the edge in this one.
| Max Holloway | -178 | -162 | -161 | -163 |
| Calvin Kattar | +150 | +138 | +135 | +135 |
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Betting Profile: Max Holloway (15-4-1)
Last Five Fights
| L | L | W | L | W |
Coming into this one with back to back losses to the current division champ, Alexander Volkanovski, Holloway is in desperate need of a win to get back on track for another opportunity to get his belt back. A striking specialist, Holloway averages 6.47 Strikes Landed per Min (SLpM), to go with a 44% striking accuracy that puts him near the top of his weight class.
In this one, however, facing a strong fellow striker in Kattar, he may want to take advantage of his superiority on the ground. Holloway’s 83% takedown accuracy will be matched up against the same metric coming in at just 37% for his opponent.
Betting Profile: Calvin Kattar (22-4-0)
Last Five Fights
| W | W | L | W | W |
For Calvin Kattar, a win in this one would put him one step closer to having what Holloway’s had two of; a shot at Volkanovski. If his fight metrics are any indication, that could very well be an uphill battle.
Not only does Kattar lag behind in SLpM, striking, and takedown accuracy, he hasn’t secured a professional win on the ground in over 10 years. While he’s averaging a takedown defense of around 88%, he hasn’t been tested like he will be on Saturday by a true all-around fighter like he’ll see in Holloway.
Outright Bet
While Holloway’s recent fight history (three losses in four fights) might be swaying some casual fans into taking the fan-favorite Kattar in this one, I will not be deterred. Make no mistake about Holloway was up against two of the best the sport has to offer in Volkanovski and Poirier and took both in the brink in all three fights.
Top Prop Bet
Though I think the odds this fight goes to the ground are slim, I do think there is some value in Holloway taking it there. It’s no secret that Kattar has cement for hands, and his inability, or lack of desire, to take opponents on the ground might be a vulnerability Holloway and his team are looking to exploit.
If he can get him to the canvas, I like Holloway to close this one out from there.
Pick: Max Holloway by Submission +1500
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.