UFC Vegas 69 Jordan Wright vs. Zac Pauga: Odds & Picks (2023)
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This Saturday’s UFC Vegas 69 features the main event with two top-10 Flyweights competing against one another. With only one week’s notice, Jessica Andrade replaces Laila Santos to take on the hottest prospect in the division in Erin Blanchfield. While every fight on this card is fantastic, let’s focus on the co-main bout between two light heavyweights.
- UFC Vegas 69 Andrade vs. Blanchfield: Prop Bet Odds & Picks
- UFC Vegas 69 Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield
UFC Fight Night Jordan Wright vs. Zac Pauga: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Betting Profile: Jordan Wright (12-4-0)
Last Five Fights (L-L-L-W-L)
Joining the UFC in 2020, Write has stumbled his way through the UFC in his first six fights with the promotion, going just 2-4 over that span, with none of his fights going the distance. Looking back to the start of his career, in fact, none of Wright’s 16 bouts have gone the distance, with seven of his 12 wins coming via KO/TKO.
In terms of the metrics heading into this one, Wright does lead slightly in knockdown averages. He also has large edges on the ground and would be wise to take it there early and often if he wants to win this one.
Betting Profile: Zac Pauga (6-1-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-W)
As for Paug, all eyes will be on him this weekend to see how he responds to his first professional loss back in August. It was Mohammed Usman who dealt him his first defeat, a second-round TKO in which Pauga looked off his game from the start.
As far as this matchup with Wright, Pauga comes in with his largest advantages in strikes absorbed per minute (2.14 vs. 7.54), as well as striking defense (70% vs. 32%). Additionally, Pauga holds the slight edge in significant striking averages at 5.71 per minute in the octagon. Unlike Wright, who has finished 100% of his fights inside the distance, Pauga tends to take his opponents into deep waters, with 67% of his wins coming via decision.
Bottom Line
Despite his recent run of losses, this is absolutely a fight that Wright can win. Between the slight edges in the metrics and the desperation to stay with the promotion, I have this fight much closer to even than the odds currently suggest.
At nearly 3 to 1, the value that Wright provides is just too good to pass up on in this spot.
Best Bet: Jordan Wright (+230 via DraftKings)
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