UFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Defenders vs. Stallions (Sunday)

The Stallions are a legitimate dynasty. After winning back-to-back USFL championships in 2022 and 2023, they steamrolled through the UFL for a championship in its inaugural season in 2024. The Defenders were in the 2023 XFL Championship Game but couldn’t translate their success to the UFL. As a result, the Stallions are favored by seven points on the road against the Defenders. Should gamblers back Birmingham, or is there another more appealing betting selection? Let’s look at Week 1’s final matchup.

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UFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (Sunday)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

DC Defenders vs. Birmingham Stallions

The Stallions were a wagon last year. They scored a UFL-high 321 points and allowed the second-fewest points (198). Birmingham had a potent offense and a talented and productive defense.

While turnover is typical in spring football, they’ve benefited from continuity, starting at the top with head coach and play-caller Skip Holtz. He runs a tight ship and squeezes every ounce out of his team. Holtz hasn’t gone anywhere, and he’ll have familiar faces in the quarterback room. Adrian Martinez was the 2024 UFL MVP. He signed a reserve/future contract with the Jets and won’t be back this season.

However, Matt Corral is back. Among 13 quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks last year, Corral had the second-highest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF). He was also first in yards per attempt (8.4). When his number was called, Corral was sharp, but he’s not a lock to start.

Instead, Alex McGough could take the reins as the team’s starting quarterback. While McGough played wide receiver on Green Bay’s practice squad, Holtz recently put to bed any ambiguity about where McGough would play for the Stallions, declaring him a quarterback. McGough was the MVP of the USFL in 2023 and eviscerated defenses through the air and on the ground. Holtz might even use McGough and Corral in tandem before settling on a starter. Either way, the Stallions have an embarrassment of riches at quarterback.

All three of Birmingham’s running backs — CJ Marable, Ricky Person and Larry Rountree —  will return from last year’s successful backfield. Moreover, their pass-catching corps is almost entirely back. Jace Sternberger (31 receptions for 521 yards), Deon Cain (37 for 461), Marlon Williams (33 for 399) and Amari Rodgers (15 for 205) are back, and they were first, second, third and fifth on the Stallions in receiving yards last year.

Birmingham will have some new faces on their offensive line. Still, four of the eight offensive linemen on this year’s team were on last year’s championship squad. Therefore, the big uglies should have a level of cohesion.

The defense also has many returning players from last year’s juggernaut unit. Carlos Davis led the team in sacks (eight), Kyahva Tezino led the team in tackles (53) and Kenny Robinson led the defense in snaps (620), and all three players are back for 2025. Newcomers Myjai Sanders and Perrion Winfrey are also eyebrow-raising additions, with NFL playing time and meaningful draft capital invested in them when they entered the NFL.

The Stallions are rightfully the betting favorites to win the 2025 UFL Championship, and chalky betting favorites at that, with +190 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. They should be a juggernaut again this year. They also routinely handled their business last year, with eight of their 11 victories by at least seven points and six by more than seven points.

The Defenders have a challenging assignment in Week 1 for bouncing back from a disappointing 2024 campaign. After going 10-2 in the XFL in 2023, DC was 4-6 last year, with 209 points for and 251 against.

DC’s season got off the rails before Week 1 last year. Abram Smith had an XFL-high 925 rushing yards at 4.8 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns for the Defenders in 2023 but tore his ACL before the 2024 season. Jordan Ta’amu was the starting quarterback in 2023 and 2024, but Smith’s absence crippled DC’s run-heavy offense. Fortunately, Smith is healthy and Ta’amu is back again.

Meanwhile, their defense allowed the second-most points (251) in 2024, and the lack of a running game to keep the ball away from opposing offenses didn’t do them any favors. Could Smith’s return have a trickle-down effect on the defense? Maybe.

Unfortunately, it’s feeling like deja vu for the Defenders this season. Once again, their season might already be off the rails. On March 23, Reggie Barlow stepped down as DC’s head coach to take the head coaching job at Tennessee State University. Barlow was the club’s head coach in 2023 and 2024, and his departure for the collegiate ranks so close to the UFL season was shocking.

The coaching drama didn’t stop there. Shannon Harris was named the interim head coach for the Defenders and doesn’t have experience as a head coach. The lack of head coaching experience is concerning for DC’s outlook in Week 1 and the season. Yet, he might also be a distracted first-time head coach, saying nothing of the rest of the staff possibly being distracted because they’ll join Barlow at Tennessee State University after the UFL season concludes. Birmingham minus seven points would be an appealing pick against the Defenders if both teams entered Week 1 on even footing, but the coaching circus in DC makes laying the points with the Stallions a tantalizing bet.

Pick: Stallions -7 (-105)

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.