The inaugural season for the UFL kicked off yesterday and resumes its opening week action today. Today’s most intriguing selections on the PrizePicks UFL board are a pair of overs and one under.
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Best UFL Week 1 PrizePicks Player Projections
Here are Sunday’s best UFL Week 1 PrizePicks plays.
Chase Garbers OVER 225.5 Passing Yards
Chase Garbers is the triggerman in offensive coordinator A.J. Smith’s pass-happy offense. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Roughnecks, with Smith as the club’s offensive coordinator in 2023, had 394 dropbacks and 361 pass attempts versus 183 rush attempts by non-quarterbacks. Garbers won the club’s offseason quarterback competition and earned high praise from his offensive coordinator.
Breaking: The San Antonio Brahmas have named Chase Garbers as the starting QB for week one against the DC Defenders.
Garbers was an offseason addition for the @XFLBrahmas, fresh off some time with the Raiders. OC A.J. Smith said his skill sets resemble that of PJ Walker. #UFL pic.twitter.com/gCrdrAJ9cS
- James Larsen (@JamesLarsenPFN) March 25, 2024
P.J. Walker was a revelation in the 2020 XFL season. He led the league in passing yards (1,338) and averaged 267.6 per game. Furthermore, Walker had over 225.5 passing yards in four of five contests. If Garbers is even a diet-soda version of Walker, he can easily surpass his line.
The matchup should be sweet, too. While personnel has changed for the spring football clubs from 2023, the Defenders have a substantial climb to reach even an average pass defense. The Defenders coughed up 281.9 passing yards per game and a median of 298.0. In fact, they held only one team under 225.5 passing yards, and that effort has an asterisk since it was a windy downpour in Las Vegas in Week 2. Even if this line is steamed into the 250s, the over is appealing.
Cam’Ron Harris UNDER 59.5 Rushing Yards
Abram Smith ran wild in D.C.’s offense last year. Unfortunately, he’s out for the season with a torn ACL, leaving Cam’Ron Harris atop the depth chart. However, veterans of spring football know better than to put too much stock in depth charts before the opening week. One of the blessings and curses of spring football is the everchanging depth charts.
Even with that word of caution in mind, Pooka Williams is the only other listed running back on D.C.’s depth chart.
Week 1 #UFL Depth Chart/Injury Report for San Antonio Brahmas vs. D.C. Defenders, Sunday afternoon on ESPN.
The @XFLDefenders will be without WR Vyncint Smith and CB Gareon Conley. Deondre Francois will back up QB Jordan Ta'amu.
The @XFLBrahmas are missing three defensive... pic.twitter.com/7ZU8rcdHKX
- Mike Mitchell (@ByMikeMitchell) March 30, 2024
Williams is diminutive and not built to handle a hefty workload. Still, the matchup might be challenging for Harris.
Wade Phillips is San Antonio’s new head coach. He inherits the club’s roster after coaching the Roughnecks in 2023. This year’s Roughnecks are actually last year’s Gamblers. Having gotten that confusion out of the way, among the eight teams in the UFL, the Brahmas and Roughnecks were PFF’s second and third-ranked run defenses last season, trailing only the Renegades. Phillips is a defensive whiz with multiple decades of experience at the NFL level. He’ll make the sledding tough for Harris. Finally, while the Defenders are favored, the Brahmas are a live underdog, and the spread has shrunk. So, the game script might not be as rosy as the opening line suggested for D.C.’s running game.
Darius Victor OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards
Darius Victor could be head coach John DeFilippo’s next workhorse running back. In 2023, DeFilippo was the head coach of the now-defunct Breakers. Wes Hills was his bell cow, handling 186 of the backfield’s 241 rush attempts (77.2%).
Victor is a human bowling ball. In the previous two seasons for the Generals, he was a between-the-tackles grinder, rumbling for 639 yards in 11 games in 2022 and 561 yards in 10 in 2023. Victor ran for over 50.5 yards in 14 of 21 games in two seasons in the USFL.
The matchup in the opener is probably favorable for him. The Gamblers had PFF’s worst run defense grade among the teams in the newly formed UFL. Again, the Roughnecks in 2024 are actually last year’s Gamblers, albeit with some new faces through multiple offseason drafts and free agency. Houston also allowed running backs an average of 58.9 rushing yards per game and a median of 57.5 in 2023. Victor’s rushing outlook is bright today.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
