Under the Radar College Football Bets: Conference Championship Week (2021)

Conference championship week is bittersweet. It marks the beginning of the end of the college football season, but it also means we’re incredibly close to determining the four teams who will vie for a championship in the College Football Playoff. And while saying goodbye to a successful regular season is always hard, the excitement of bowl season helps mitigate that sadness.

Writing this piece for conference championship week is admittedly a little trickier too. With such a small volume of games, there aren’t many games that truly stay under the radar. Some games get more publicity than others. So this week, we’ll be focusing on my favorite plays from non-Power 5 conference title games.

• Week 13 record: 2-3
• 2021 season record: 29-17

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Appalachian State Mountaineers at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns

Let’s start in the Sun Belt with a matchup between two teams familiar with playing each other in this game. This is the third time the Mountaineers and Ragin’ Cajuns will square off for the Sun Belt title. Louisiana has made it all four years the game has existed, while Appalachian State is making its third trip to the conference title game after losing the East Division to Coastal Carolina last year.

These two teams squared off earlier in the season in mid-October, with Louisiana winning 41-13 in what was probably App State’s worst performance of the season. The game was pretty much out of hand by the second quarter, with App State falling into a 20-3 hole early on. The Mountaineers made matters worse by committing four turnovers and going 0-for-11 on third down conversions. The Ragin’ Cajuns made them pay, turning those four takeaways into 20 points.

App State is a different team than it was back then. They’ve won six straight since that poor performance at Louisiana, with only one outcome by single digits.

Both of these teams are built on strong running games. Louisiana ranks 33rd, and Appalachian State ranks 37th in the country on the ground. But it’s the road team that has a couple of distinct advantages.

Appalachian State’s defense is far better against the run. The Mountaineers rank 15th nationally in run defense, letting up just 108.9 rushing yards per game and only 3.17 yards per carry. Louisiana isn’t quite as dominant and allows nearly 144 yards per game on the ground.

The Mountaineers are also better situated to succeed if forced to rely on the passing game. Quarterback Chase Brice is a bit of a turnover risk, with ten interceptions on the season. But App State has a better collection of pass catchers, with three receivers recording at least 49 catches, 700 yards, and five touchdowns during the regular season. Louisiana’s Levi Lewis is the more dynamic athlete, but he doesn’t have a single receiver with more than 350 yards on the season.

I also trust Appalachian State head coach Shawn Clark more than Louisiana’s Billy Napier. Clark was on the App State’s coaching staff for its Sun Belt title victories over Napier’s Ragin’ Cajuns. Meanwhile, Napier could have his eyes on the recent influx of Power 5 head coaching vacancies. He’s reportedly in the mix for the Florida job.

It’s telling that most oddsmakers opened with the road team Mountaineers as favorites in this contest. I suspect Appalachian State will avenge its October loss to Louisiana.

Pick: Appalachian State -2.5, play up to -3

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at UTSA Roadrunners

The Conference USA Championship Game also features a rematch. But this line is far more intriguing when you consider that the Hilltoppers opened as 2.5-point underdogs. 

So, why has the line moved so drastically in Western Kentucky’s favor? Because the Hilltoppers can expose the Roadrunners’ greatest weakness: their pass defense.

Western Kentucky has the nation’s most electric passing game, leading the country with an average of 422.8 passing yards per game. If you haven’t watched quarterback Bailey Zappe yet, then you’re in for a treat on Friday night. In the first contest between these teams, Zappe threw for 523 yards and five touchdowns. The problem was UTSA got the win, 52-46.

Similar to Appalachian State, the Hilltoppers have won seven straight since losing to the Roadrunners. Their defense has seemingly turned a corner, too, as they’ve given up no more than 21 points since serving up a 50-burger to the Roadrunners. They’ve given up fewer than 350 yards in five of their last seven contests.

I’m riding with the masses and taking Western Kentucky to spoil UTSA’s magical season in the Alamodome.

Pick: Western Kentucky -2, play to -3

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Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Northern Illinois Huskies

How about another rematch? This time in the MAC. The last time these two teams played, there were some serious fireworks, as Kent State won 52-47 in a thriller.

Northern Illinois has been riding a magic carpet this season. Projected as one of the worst teams in the conference, the Huskies finished the regular season 8-4 with a win over Georgia Tech. However, all but one of NIU’s wins came by single digits this season. Kent State is slightly more battle tested, with losses against Texas A&M, Iowa, and Maryland on their resume. And while the Golden Flashes have been a little more dominant in conference play, they did need Miami-Ohio to fail on a 2-point conversion to earn a trip to Ford Field.

Both of these teams are elite rushing teams that offer little to no resistance against the run. Kent State ranks third in rushing offense, NIU ranks fifth. Kent State ranks 104th in rushing defense, NIU ranks 120th. The Golden Flashes are also miserable against the pass, ranking 128th in that category. In the first meeting, NIU QB Rocky Lombardi threw for 532 yards on them.

Now, as someone who has a Kent State 14/1 ticket to win the conference, I have to admit I’m a little nervous heading into this one. And that’s why instead of playing the side, I’m looking to the total while I hope and pray for a Kent State victory.

This will be a fitting conclusion to MACtion, as there should be points galore. So I’m taking the over while hoping Kent State can get one more stop than Northern Illinois.

Pick: Over 72 points

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.