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Updated Heisman Trophy Winner Odds: Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr., Quinn Ewers & More (2023)

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With college football season in full swing, the race for the highly coveted Heisman Trophy is heating up. This prestigious award, presented annually to the most outstanding player in college football, is a dream for any player to achieve and a popular futures bet for savvy bettors. By taking some early risk, bettors can get more favorable odds in exchange for playing the long game. The key is to pay attention to the updated Heisman Trophy Winner Odds and pick the right times to place your bets.

The longer you wait, the less return you’ll get on your investment. Caleb Williams, for example, is the overwhelming favorite. He opened at +500 odds. If the season plays out as many expect, that number will drop almost every week. Heading into Week 6, that number is down to +170 at some books. But he’s no sure thing, and Michael Penix Jr., who opened at +1400, is now down to +450. Below are the up-to-the-minute odds for the 2023 NCAAF Heisman Winner.

Current NCAAF Heisman Winner Odds

What is a futures bet?

The vast majority of sports betting is done on single games occurring in the near future. Futures bets are wagers on future events and are decided by a large number of games rather than just one. Futures bets are usually on end-of-season results such as a team winning a championship or a player winning an award. It is difficult to win so odds are low and futures bets generally have large payouts.

Strategy for NCAAF Futures

There are so many different ways to take attack the futures market. The futures market allows you to find edges in areas that single-game betting does not. It is important to assign probabilities to what you are betting and compare those to the implied probability the futures market dictates. Whether that is simply just using your own intuition, having your own power ratings numbers, or creating a model to determine the probability of events occurring, it is vital to do so. Before the 2021 college football season, the CJ Stroud was +1400 to win the Heisman trophy. The implied odds of that are around 7%. If you give Stroud a 15% chance to win the Heisman then there is some value to bet that. If you give him just a 3% chance, then you may want to look to bet a different player in that market. Futures markets often have heavy juice so there may be no value at all but if you consistently make futures bets with positive expected value, you will win in the long run.

Another strategy for betting NCAAF futures is by hedging. If you placed a bet on Michigan to win the Big Ten before the 2021 college football season at +500, then you had the opportunity to hedge against that bet throughout the season and in the Big Ten Championship game. If you had a Michigan Big Ten Champion ticket at +500, you could've hedged against that bet by betting the Iowa moneyline in the championship game to ensure that you will win regardless of the game's outcome.


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