USC vs. Michigan State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Picks

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

• 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
• 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
• 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
• 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)

In addition to projecting players this year, I’m also teaming up with some folks here behind the scenes to create official team forecasts for every NCAA tournament game.

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2023 March Madness Player Prop Bets: USC vs. Michigan State

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USC vs. Michigan State

All betting odds are from:

• BetMGM
• FanDuel
• Caesars
• DraftKings
• PointsBet
• SugarHouse
• FOX Bet
• Betway
• UniBet

USC

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
Kobe Johnson Over 1.5 Assists	-143	1.43	1	CZR

Michigan State

Prop	Odds	Units	To Win	Book
A.J. Hoggard Over 5.5 Assists	104	1	1.04	FD

For the rest of my prop bets and all of my player projections, check out my premium projections and picks article for the game >>

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Here’s what I expect to be my general flow for working and betting over the course of March Madness.

1. Monitor our premium spread projections and total projections.
2. Track any team-level bets I make in our BettingPros app. I don’t plan to go too heavy into this market since this is my first year with NCAA game projections.
3. Do player projections (points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made and free throws made).
4. Publish a premium article for every game with all of my player projections and prop bets. Since I don’t follow college basketball, I won’t provide any analysis with my picks, especially given the time crunch of March Madness. Just doesn’t seem worth it.
5. Post some of my favorite player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord.

If there’s a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.

More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks

• Xavier vs. Kennesaw State
• UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor
• Saint Mary’s vs. VCU
• Marquette vs. Vermont
• Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh
• Creighton vs. NC State
• Iona vs. UConn

Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks

• USC vs. Michigan State
• Creighton vs. NC State
• Miami vs. Drake
• Indiana vs. Kent State
• Saint Mary’s vs. VCU
• Kentucky vs. Providence
• Marquette vs. Vermont
• Arizona State vs. TCU
• Xavier vs. Kennesaw State
• Gonzaga vs. Grand Canyon
• Purdue vs. Fairleigh Dickinson
• Kansas State vs. Montana State
• Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh
• UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor
• Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis
• Iona vs. UConn

Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions

South

• #6 Creighton vs. #11 NC State
• #3 Baylor vs. #14 UC Santa Barbara

East

• #8 Memphis vs. #9 Florida Atlantic
• #6 Kentucky vs. #11 Providence
• #3 Kansas State vs. #14 Montana State
• #7 Michigan State vs. #10 USC
• #2 Marquette vs. #15 Vermont

West

• #5 Saint Mary’s vs. #12 VCU
• #4 UConn vs. #13 Iona
• #3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Grand Canyon

Midwest

• #5 Miami vs. #12 Drake
• #4 Indiana vs. #13 Kent State
• #3 Xavier vs. #14 Kennesaw State

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