USFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (2023)
The second season of the USFL begins this weekend. The final two games of the opening week include three teams that missed the playoffs, and all four teams have new head coaches. So, there’s a degree of uncertainty when making betting picks. Still, a bet for each game was enticing.
USFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (2023)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Gamblers vs. Michigan Panthers
Scoring in the first week of spring football leagues has often been underwhelming. In the AAF in 2019, the average was 38.25 points, and the median was 36.0. The 2020 XFL had an average and median of 35.0 and 33.0, the 2022 USFL had 35.25 and 34.5 and the 2023 XFL had 40.0 and 41.0. The overall scoring average for that sample was 37.13, and the median was 40.0 points. So, the average and median were both under this game’s total of 38.5 points six of eight times, with the 2023 XFL providing the only instances of the average and median exceeding 38.5 points in Week 1.
The new head coaches for the Gamblers and Panthers don’t inspire much confidence in the two clubs scoring points, either. Houston’s new head coach is Curtis Johnson and according to Sports-Reference, when he coached the Tulane Green Wave from 2012 through 2015, his offenses ranked 99th of 124, 90th of 125, 123rd of 128, and 113th of 128 in scoring per game. Yikes.
Meanwhile, Mike Nolan is the new head coach for the Panthers. His expertise is on the defensive side of the ball, serving as a defensive coordinator for 18 years in the NFL. Nolan was also a head coach for four years for the 49ers, and San Francisco finished 30th, 24th, 32nd, and 22nd in scoring. In short, this game should be a defensive struggle. Both clubs in this contest also have workhorse running backs and might lean heavily on controlling the ball and chewing the clock, so the under is the bet for this game.
Pick: Under 38.5 Points (-110)
New Orleans Breakers vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
The Breakers are the only team playing on Sunday that reached the playoffs last year. Larry Fedora is no longer the head coach, and Kyle Sloter isn’t the team’s quarterback, either. However, the pass-catching corps is still a strength. New head coach John DeFilippo is an offensive-minded head coach with three years of experience as an NFL offensive coordinator and likely starting quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson won two Grey Cups in the CFL (once as a backup and then as the starter last year before getting injured and relieved by Chad Kelly) and was recruited by DeFilippo to join the Breakers.
So, New Orleans’ offensive outlook is exciting and, in addition, the Breakers allowed the fewest points last year. Conversely, the Maulers were an unmitigated disaster, scoring the fewest points (147) and tying for the most points allowed (243).
Former head coach Kirby Wilson is gone. His tenure was potentially only less embarrassing than Urban Meyers’ stint with the Jaguars. Veteran NFL defensive coordinator Ray Horton is the new head coach and he doesn’t have a high bar to clear to be better than Wilson. Nonetheless, the Maulers have a significant climb to reach respectability. The Breakers are my second-favorite choice to win the USFL Championship this year at +550 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, and I expect them to start the year with a convincing win against the Maulers.
Pick: New Orleans Breakers -3.5 Points (-110)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.