USFL Week 4 Betting Odds, Previews, Picks (2022)
Sadly, I could not follow a winning Week 2 with another winning week last week. After whiffing on two of three picks, my top bets are an even five and five. Thankfully, two of the losses have been underdogs, meaning we’ve only lost juice on thee of the losing picks. Thus, a winning week can bring my season tally to a positive total. Now, let’s look at my favorite USFL picks for Week 4.
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Top Bets
New Jersey Generals vs. Pittsburgh Maulers Under 33.5 Points (-110)
First, a significant rule change impacts this pick. Mike Pereira announced on Thursday that the USFL would implement a running clock on incomplete passes in the first and third quarters.
In those quarters, the running clock on incomplete passes will speed the game up, reduce the plays, and take a bite out of scoring upside. In addition, the Maulers don’t have much scoring upside anyway.
Pittsburgh has comically scored only 26 points in three games. They scored three points in Week 1, erupted for 23 in Week 2, and were shut out in Week 3. Yikes.
Meanwhile, the Generals have scored 58 points. They’re also the league’s most run-heavy team. According to FOX Sports, the Generals have attempted a league-high 122 rushes (40.7 per game) and league-low 74 passes (24.7 per game).
Moreover, Mike Riley cut loose run-first quarterback De’Andre Johnson more often last week. If that’s a sign of things to come, they can continue to be expected to deploy a run-first offense. Finally, the Maulers have been the league’s worst team through three games. So, they’re unlikely to force the 9.5-point-favored Generals out of their run-first comfort zone.
Tampa Bay Bandits vs. Birmingham Stallions Under 41.0 Points (-110)
Jumping on another under makes sense as the oddsmakers and betting public adjust to the USFL’s rule change. The Stallions lead the league in scoring with 83 points. However, they scored a season-low 22 points last week.
Birmingham has played a somewhat balanced offense, attempting 99 passes and 86 rushes. In addition, their defense is the backbone of the club. According to Pro Football Focus, they have pressured quarterbacks on a staggering league-high 48.7% of their dropbacks. As a result, Pro Football Focus has given them the highest pressure grade. Further, they’ve awarded them the highest coverage grade.
Unfortunately, the Bandits have graded poorly in pressure and coverage. However, they’ve earned the best run defense grade. So, if they’re able to bottle up Birmingham’s rushing attack, they might force J’Mar Smith to air it out more frequently on the heels of his worst showing of the year.
Additionally, the Bandits have used an even more balanced offense than the Stallions. Tampa Bay has attempted 96 passes and 94 rushes. Last week, they hung 27 points on the board in a thrilling shootout. However, they scored only 20 points in the previous two weeks combined. Therefore, Birmingham’s stout defense should bring the Bandits’ offense back to Earth in Week 4.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.