Vikings vs. 49ers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 2)
Introducing the Week 2 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 2 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Vikings and 49ers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 2 Betting Primer>>
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5)
Sides:
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
- All but four of the Vikings' 16 games played in 2023 were decided by eight points or less.
- Minnesota won against the Giants as low road favorites 28-6.
- The 49ers have won eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
- The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs.
- The 49ers are 8-7 ATS as road favorites.
- The road team has covered the spread in 12 of the 49ers' last 13 games.
- SF is 11-4 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
Totals:
- Four of the Vikings’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Teams averaged 42.5 points in Minnesota in 2023, 2-5-1 toward the over this season.
Overall:
This is one of the most interesting matchups on the Week 2 slate. Sam Darnold will make his first home start for the Vikings against the team that he played for all last season. He got it done versus the Giants on the road, but he will face a much tougher test against the 49ers defense.
I faded the 49ers at home last week under the idea that they were overrated historically in that spot. But the Jets were not the opponent to chase that bet. Even without Christian McCaffery, Gang Green was overwhelmed. Don't think that spells the end of their season, but Week 1 was not the spot for fading the 49ers.
So is a road matchup versus Kevin O'Connell and Brain Flores' defense the spot to fade SF? It could be. Last year, when these teams faced off in the same matchup, Minnesota won outright 22-17. SF was favored by 7 points, coming off a road loss. And the Vikings didn't have Justin Jefferson in that contest. Brock Purdy threw two interceptions. However, the 49ers were without Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams, and despite being undermanned, SF still averaged 9.1 yards per attempt. The three turnovers are what killed them. They also struggled to run the football, even with Christian McCaffrey (45 rushing yards).
Minnesota's defense is coached extremely well under Flores, and his defenses have traditionally had success versus Kyle Shanahan. Last year's matchup went under the projected total. Flores's Dolphins beat the 49ers in a massive upset as 8.5-road underdogs (although SF had a QB injury). Either way, I expect Minnesota to do a better job on defense than the Jets did on Monday night.
But I hardly feel confident backing Sam Darnold as an underdog, even in a great situation, given Shanahan probably knows his weaknesses. Conversely, he can provide insight on the 49ers offense to his defensive coaches.
All in all, this game's lines coincide with my projections, so it's likely a shy away from me. Based on Flores' defense slowing down SF at home, I would opt for the under at 45.5 points.
Props:
- Jordan Addison isn't likely to play in Week 2, putting Jalen Nailor into a larger role. Keep an eye on his player props.
- Brock Purdy might need to use his legs more in this matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings. Purdy tends to run more on the road (60% hit rate last season on his attempts) and he hit 19 rushing yards the last time he played Minnesota.
- Ty Chandler made his mark in the passing game in Week 1 with 25 yards on three catches, including 31 YAC on three targets. He ran almost an identical number of routes to Aaron Jones, with a superior target rate at 38%.
- Chandler has gone for at least 11.5 receiving yards in three straight games. Breece Hall had 39 receiving yards last week versus the 49ers, going over his 29.5 receiving yards line.
My Picks: