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Vikings vs. Bears: NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Vikings vs. Bears.

NFL Betting Primer: Vikings vs. Bears

Chicago Bears (CHI 3.0) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Bears welcome a Justin Jefferson-less Vikings team that is trending in the completely wrong direction. They are 1-4 and the vibes just aren’t good coming out of Week 5. Kirk Cousins is being floated in trade rumors with him on an expired deal.

Still, they find themselves as 2.5-point favorites on the road. And I get it because, besides the W-L record, Minnesota has been a solid team, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. Top-10 in yards and fourth in yards per play. It’s just the lack of turning yards into scoring (16th) and turnover margin (32nd) that have killed them in the win-loss column.

Meanwhile, Chicago’s offense has come to life over the last two weeks like what we saw last year after a slow start. I think the production continues versus a blitz-happy Vikings defense.

Over the last two weeks versus the blitz, Justin Fields has the third-highest passer rating (141.9). 5 passing TDs. Weeks 1-3 vs the blitz? The second-worst passer rating.

Still, Chicago’s defense is still abysmal.

The Bears rank 23rd in takeaways per game (0.8) and 26th in passes defended through four games.

Even without Jefferson, Cousins should be able to orchestrate an offense that can beat down the Bears defense. And without Chicago’s defense creating turnovers we should see the Vikings come away with a road win, despite how badly they have been hit by regression in one-score games this season compared to last season.

But if you’d rather not try your luck betting on the Vikings in a one-score spread with the regression god out for blood, just take the over. And bet the over on Justin Fields’ passing yards prop which has been comically set at 188.5 passing yards. Gone over that number in four of five games this season.

Chicago is 5-0 toward the over due to the rare combination of horrible defense and offense that can get on a hot streak. And even without Jefferson, I think we can see the Vikings score against one of the league’s worst defenses.

As for player props, the prop on Vikings RB Alexander Mattison is just too low. Although the Vikings are using more RBs, Mattison is still seeing the vast majority of carries. And before last week, the Bears had allowed at least 40 rushing yards to an opposing RB. However, if you’d just rather fade Mattison altogether, considering the under on his receiving yards prop. Aside from Mattison continuing to drop screen passes left and right, he is losing pass-down usage to both Cam Akers and C.J. Ham in recent weeks. After catching 3 passes in every single game the first three weeks, Mattison has just three total catches on four targets. The under at 2.5 receptions very much in play (-110 BetMGM).

Also want to highlight the weather concerns here as well, so you may want to wait until earlier Sunday for a full weather update. The forecast at the time of writing calls for rain and winds 17-19 miles per hour. The total continues to dip as a result, so I think I’d back the under and probably flip to the Bears +3.0 at home in bad weather conditions. Otherwise, the game might just be a complete shy away.

There are certain props I still like in rainy conditions that I think can hit assuming we get short-to-intermediate passing attacks from these two offenses.

K.J. Osborn OVER 40.5 receiving yards. Osborn figures to take on a larger role with Justin Jefferson sidelined. Specifically, as Kirk Cousins’ short dump-off option. The Bears rank dead last in YAC allowed this season. Osborn has also had a ton of success versus the Bears defense in the past. In two games last year versus Chicago, Osborn posted a combined 10 catches for 158 yards on 11 targets.

I also love the OVER on Cole Kmet‘s receptions prop at plus-money odds. Vikings rank 6th in receptions allowed to TEs (5.8 per game) and Kmet has surpassed 3.5 catches in all but one game this year. He ranks 5th in the NFL in receptions among TEs.

My Picks:

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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