Vikings vs. Rams NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football Picks & Player Prop Bets

Welcome to the ultimate Week 8 NFL betting breakdown from BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, and this week, all eyes are on a key NFC matchup: the Minnesota Vikings heading to Los Angeles to take on the Rams. It’s more than just another game: it’s a clash of two teams with playoff aspirations looking to gain momentum in the back half of the season. With star power on both sides, this game promises to deliver excitement under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football.

From expert analysis of the spread and total to must-have player props, I’ll guide you through every key betting angle for this pivotal matchup. Whether you’re building the perfect single-game parlay or locking in your top prop bets, I’ve got you covered. This is just a preview of what’s to come when the FULL BettingPros Week 8 Primer drops later this week. Get ready to place those bets and dive into my top picks for this can’t-miss Rams vs. Vikings showdown!

Thursday Night Football Primer

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams

Sides

• The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 12 games. They are 5-1 ATS this season under Sam Darnold.
• The Vikings are 6-1-2 ATS as road favorites (86%).
• All but five of the Vikings’ last 20 games have been decided by eight points or less (75%).
• The Vikings have scored first in each of their last five games.
• The Vikings have won the first half in five of their last six games.
• The Rams have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
• The Rams 2023 starters are 2-10 as underdogs straight up. 1-4 as underdogs this season (2-3 ATS) after their massive win against the 49ers.
• The favorites have won 16 of the Rams’ last 17 games.
• In seven of the Rams’ last eight games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.

Totals

• Six of the Vikings’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• The Vikings are 4-2 toward the under this season. 2-1 toward the under at home this season, averaging over 41 points per game.
• Teams averaged over 42 points in Minnesota, 3-6-1 toward the over since the start of the 2023 season.
• The Vikings are 3-8-1 toward the under in Minnesota since the start of 2023.
• Eight of the Rams’ last 13 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
• The Rams are 10-9 toward the O/U in their last 19 games.
• Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only five times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense. They allowed over 300 yards of offense to the Raiders in Week 7.

Overall:

Are the Rams frauds? Well, last week’s performance against the Raiders surely doesn’t convince me otherwise. They were outgained in total yards and won because they won the turnover battle four to one, including a fumble six.

This has been their team most of the season: underwhelming. Case in point: The Rams have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.

Minnesota came up just short last week against the Lions, but they showed they are still a force to be reckoned with in the NFC postseason picture.

This 2.5-spread for the visiting Vikings is too short, in my opinion. They’ve been a great team to bet on as road favorites, and I see no reason to have faith in the Rams at "home," even with the return of Cooper Kupp. Favorites tend to prevail in Rams games, so I see no reason to flip the script.

Minnesota still has arguably the best defense in the NFL, and there’s no telling how effective Kupp will be in the first game back from the ankle injury.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams have aligned under center on 34.9% of plays this season (8th-highest in the NFL) and have been most efficient when under center, recording a league-high 58.6% success rate. When under center, the Rams have dropped back to pass at the 2nd-highest rate (37.5%), but they have been most efficient when rushing, recording the 2nd-highest success rate (56.3%). The Vikings have generated a 68.5% defensive success rate against under-center runs this season, the 2nd-highest in the NFL.

The Rams are also not the only team getting a key offensive piece back from injury. T.J. Hockenson also has a chance to play on Thursday night.

Per Next Gen Stats, Hockenson caught 95 of his 127 targets for 960 yards and five touchdowns while generating the most receptions over expected among tight ends (+9.4) in 2023. The Rams have allowed a league-high 10.0 yards per target to tight ends this season, generating a defensive success rate of just 33.3% when opposing quarterbacks target their tight ends (lowest in the NFL).

If you are expecting Kupp to make a major impact, I’d rather just bet the game total over, although it’s been bet up since it opened at 46.5 to 48 points. Given Minnesota’s defense isn’t as stingy on the road versus at home and the Rams’ defense can’t stop anybody, it’s not hard to squint to find points in this matchup.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams have generated a league-high 57.4% pressure rate on blitzes this season. While they rank in the middle of the pack in blitz rate (31.1%, 13th), they have been very efficient in doing so, allowing the fourth-lowest success rate (37.7%) and fourth-lowest explosive play rate (11.5%).

Sam Darnold has completed a league-high +14.1% of his passes over expected against the blitz. He has also pushed the ball downfield against the blitz, averaging 12.3 air yards per attempt (second-most). This has translated to a league-leading 140.8 passer rating against the blitz.

Two blitz-happy defenses tend to lead to big plays (both offensively and defensively). Big plays are how this game goes over the total, as the Rams’ defense has been pretty solid against teams methodically driving the football. In the last three weeks, their defense ranks first in third-down conversion rate. But they also rank 31st in deep ball defense.

Part of this is based on their recent switch to man coverage on defense. Per Next Gen Stats, after using man coverage on just 23.1% of dropbacks through the first four weeks of the season (11th-lowest in the NFL), the Rams have utilized man on 4% of pass plays over the last three weeks (5th-highest). The Rams have allowed just 5.5 yards per attempt in man coverage this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL.

Darnold has the second-highest passer rating (125.7) against such coverage this season. Per Next Gen Stats, Justin Jefferson leads the NFL with 263 receiving yards and four touchdowns (tied with Drake London) against man coverage this season. Jefferson has also averaged a career-high 4.6 yards per route run against man this season, 2nd-most in the NFL (min. 30 routes).

Props:

Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last nine regular-season appearances.

Per Next Gen Stats, Matthew Stafford has completed just 1 of his 12 attempts in the endzone this season, throwing for one 1-yard touchdown and one interception.

Stafford has completed just 8.3% of his targets into the endzone in 2024, his lowest end zone completion percentage since at least 2016. Stafford has thrown 13 touchdown passes to Cooper Kupp on endzone targets since 2021, tied for the 3rd-most of any duo over that span.

Colby Parkinson has been on my touchdown radar all year, given he hasn’t scored despite six targets in the red zone. It would only make sense for Parkinson to score his first touchdown of the season in a game where Kupp returns to the lineup. But even if Parkinson scores, it doesn’t mean he will be heavily involved. Last week, Parkinson ran a route on just 46% of dropbacks (season-low). He’s under 3.5 catches in half his games already this season, and that trend should continue on Thursday night.

That being said, he’s not the only Rams tight end I am looking to for TD props. Davis Allen returned to the lineup in Week 7 and ate into Parkinson’s snap counts. Allen only has one target this season, and it came in the red zone. I’ve made worse tight-end TD bets than Allen at 12-1 odds.

My Picks:

• Vikings -2.5
• Colby Parkinson UNDER 3.5 receptions
• Justin Jefferson OVER 5.5 receptions
• Justin Jefferson OVER 84.5 receiving yards
• Justin Jefferson 1st TD (+650)
• Davis Allen anytime TD (+1200)