Wake Forest vs. Missouri: 2022 College Football Gasparilla Bowl Odds, Picks & Predictions (Friday)
Here are Thor Nystrom’s best bets for the 2022 College Football Bowl Game: Gasparilla Bowl.
2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
2022 bowls (through Dec. 18): 8-2 ATS (80%)
2022 combined: 90-68-3 ATS (56.9%)
2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Wake Forest vs. Missouri: 2022 College Football Gasparilla Bowl Odds, Picks & Predictions
Friday, December 23 | 5:30 PM
Wake Forest (-1) vs. Missouri | Total: 60
ATL: WF -7.3 | ATT: 66.5
Wake Forest
- RB Christian Turner (Transfer portal)
- WR Jahmal Banks (Injury)
- CB Gavin Holmes (Transfer portal)
- CB JJ Roberts (Transfer portal)
QB Sam Hartman will play. RB Turner, the team's second-leading rusher, is out the door. But fortunately, RB3 Quinton Cooley said he'll play, even though he's already announced his own intentions to transfer. WR Banks is the team's third-best receiver, but Wake Forest has great depth at the position.
CB Holmes was a starter and the team's second-best corner. CB Roberts played the third-most corner snaps on the team this fall, but PFF grading (58.5) suggests the guys behind Roberts are better equipped to assume the snaps Holmes has vacated (none of the three CBs behind him in snaps graded below 68.0). CB Zamari Stevenson and S Malik Mustapha are expected back from injuries.
Missouri
- RB Michael Cox (Injury)
- WR Dominic Lovett (Transfer portal)
- G EJ Ndoma-Ogar (Injury)
- DE Isaiah McGuire (Opt-out)
- DE D.J. Coleman (Opt-out)
- LB Zach Lovett (Transfer portal)
- CB DJ Jackson (Transfer portal)
- CB LJ Hewitt (Transfer portal)
- S Martez Manuel (Opt-out)
WR Lovett is a big loss, as he piled up 56 catches for 846 yards in the regular season. Lovett was easily the offense's most valuable skill player. Mizzou doesn't have many playmakers outside of him. RB Cox and G Ndoma-Ogar didn't factor in much this fall.
DE McGuire, DE Coleman and S Manuel all declared for the NFL Draft and opted out. All three were crucial defenders on Mizzou's frisky defense. McGuire posted 21 hurries this fall and led the team with seven sacks. Coleman was No. 2 with six sacks. S Manuel was the team's second-best safety. He had a solid season outside of blowing too many tackle attempts. The other three defenders listed above were seldom-used backups.
Handicap
The biggest news here is that Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman is playing. With that in mind, it's genuinely surprising that Wake Forest isn't favored by more. My system favors Wake Forest by -7.3.
The market doesn't appear to be penalizing Mizzou on the spread whatsoever for the Tigers' myriad opt-outs. If this game had been played at the end of the regular season, on a neutral field, with both teams at full strength, my system would have favored the Deacons by -1.8... this spread is even below that!
The Demon Deacons' No. 8 SP+ offense was basically unscathed from opt-outs. You can't say the same about Mizzou's No. 25 SP+ defense as the Tigers will be missing three standout starters, two of them clustered on the edge.
Wake Forest has a bad defense, a unit that ranked No. 104 SP+ during the regular season. But without WR Lovett, Missouri's already below-average offense - No. 71 SP+ - will regress further. Perhaps not into a qualitative wash with the unit it is facing, but not an enormous advantage either.
Wake Forest was a disappointment this season. But the opportunity to lay less than a field goal on the Deacons with Hartman starting against a mediocre Mizzou outfit decimated by opt-outs is too alluring for us to pass up.
The pick: Wake Forest -1
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