Week 5 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Last week was a bloodbath. I'm in a 6-13 tailspin over the last two weeks.
And, no, I wasn't upset at all when a ticky-tack penalty nullified a long Amari Cooper touchdown. I was a model of composure. Thank you for asking.
It's time to pick up the pieces and start rebuilding the bankroll. I guarantee* a winning Week 5!
(*Not a guarantee)
Fitz’s Favorite Week 5 Player Props
Before we get to this week's selections, a quick recap of Week 4 …
The wins: Chuba Hubbard over 80.5 rushing/receiving yards, Justin Jefferson over 78.5 receiving yards, Stefon Diggs over 60.5 receiving yards
The losses: Jordan Love under 241.5 passing yards, D'Andre Swift under 37.5 rushing yards, Rachaad White under 38.5 rushing yards, Darnell Mooney under 40.5 receiving yards, Marvin Harrison Jr. over 67.5 receiving yards, Amari Cooper over 51.5 receiving yards
- Last week: 3-6
- Season record: 20-22
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Oct. 3.
Andy Dalton OVER 214.5 passing yards
In his first start for the Panthers this season, Dalton attempted 37 passes and threw for 319 yards against the Raiders. Last week, he attempted 40 passes vs. the Bengals and had 220 passing yards. Start No. 3 for Dalton comes against the Bears, who have limited opponents to 194.5 passing yards per game. But that average is skewed by a 127-yard performance by the Titans' Will Levis in Week 1 and a 167-yard performance by Anthony Richardson in Week 3, with Richardson attempting only 20 passes. With the passing volume we've been seeing from Dalton, this total should be reasonably easy for him to clear.
Jordan Love OVER 261.5 passing yards
Last week, I bet the under on Love's passing yardage and knew that bet was doomed as soon as the Packers fell into a 28-0 hole that guaranteed heavy passing volume for Green Bay the rest of the game. I certainly don't expect Love to approach the 54 pass attempts he had against the Vikings last week, but I do expect him to pick his teeth with a dreadful Rams pass defense Sunday in Los Angeles. The Rams are giving up a league-high 9.1 yards per pass attempt and have an opponent passer rating of 122.7, second-highest behind only the Commanders. Opponents have completed 72.6 percent of their passes against the Rams this season. Bon appetit, Mr. Love.
Ty Chandler OVER 21.5 rushing yards
Chandler had at least seven carries in each of Minnesota's first three games. He had only three carries last week against the Packers, as Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell fed Aaron Jones a season-high 22 carries against his old team. After Jones shouldered such a big load against Green Bay, and with the Vikings making the trip overseas to London to face the Jets, expect O'Connell to balance the division of labor between his two running backs a bit more. I'm expecting Chandler to get at least 7-8 rushing attempts against a Jets defense that's giving up 4.6 yards per carry to RBs.
Kyren Williams UNDER 81.5 rushing yards
Rams head coach Sean McVay has force-fed Williams 43 carries over the last two weeks. I suspect McVay knows that the 202-pound Williams won't hold up all season because he keeps getting huge weekly workloads. Williams is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. He's facing the Packers this week, and while the Green Bay defense has been notoriously soft against the run in recent years, the Packers' run defense has improved under new coordinator Jeff Hafley and currently ranks ninth in DVOA. Green Bay has allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards to RBs. This number might be too tall for Kyren.
Garrett Wilson OVER 54.5 receiving yards
Here's my favorite prop of the week. With all the consternation in the New York metropolitan area over Wilson's relative lack of involvement in the Jets' offense, expect Aaron Rodgers to make it a point to get his star receiver the ball. And really, it's not as if Wilson has been invisible. He's averaging 8.5 targets and 5.0 catches a game. He's cleared this number in two of his four games this season. I like him to clear it again against a Vikings defense that has given up a league-high 221.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Amari Cooper OVER 55.5 receiving yards
I realize Cooper has had some pretty extreme home/road splits in recent years. Since joining the Browns in 2022, Cooper has averaged 78.6 receiving yards in home games and 63.5 receiving yards in road games. I don't care that Cooper is playing in Washington this Sunday or that he's failed to clear this number in three of his first four games (although he should have cleared it last week, had a long TD nullified by a questionable penalty). Cooper is still a fine receiver, and he'll be facing a ragged Commanders pass defense that has given up the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers. The Browns' passing attack should get a lift this week with both of its starting offensive tackles, Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, seemingly set to return from injuries.
Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 60.5 receiving yards
Aiyuk is bound to break out of his slump at some point, but this number seems pretty tall for a receiver who hasn't reached 50 yards in any of his four games this season after missing training camp in a contract dispute. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy has an embarrassment of riches to choose from when he drops back to pass: Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings. And Purdy might not have to throw a lot this Sunday, with the Niners favored by 7.5 points at home against the Cardinals.
Jakobi Meyers UNDER 45.5 receiving yards
Meyers and the Raiders have a tough road matchup against the Broncos. The Denver defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the pass and has allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers. Meyers is likely to run a lot of his routes into the coverage of Broncos shutdown corner Patrick Surtain Jr. As my colleague Derek Brown noted in the Week 5 installment of The Primer, over the Broncos' first four games, Surtain has followed D.K. Metcalf, Mike Evans, George Pickens and Garrett Wilson on 60% to 95% of their routes, and none of them eclipsed 30 receiving yards in his coverage. And it's not as if Meyers has major yardage upside to begin with. He hasn't topped 62 yards in any game this season.
D.K. Metcalf OVER 65.5 receiving yards
The Seattle passing game is humming. Seahawks QB Geno Smith led the NFL in passing yardage after four weeks. Metcalf has topped 100 receiving yards in three straight games. And the Seahawks have a home date with a Giants pass defense that ranks 24th in DVOA. Bet on Metcalf to keep the hot streak going.