Week 8 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)
There are no byes this week, so we have a meaty menu of player props, and I have a hearty appetite. There are 14 plays that look nice and juicy.
Before we get to this week's selections, a quick recap of Week 7 …
The wins: Bijan Robinson over 63.5 rushing yards, Johnny Mundt under 17.5 receiving yards, Ray-Ray McCloud under 40.5 yards, Josh Downs under 52.5 receiving yards
The losses: Geno Smith over 261.5 passing yards, Aidan O'Connell over 208.5 passing yards, Drake Maye over 28.5 rushing yards, Evan Engram over 47.5 receiving yards, DeVonta Smith over 57.5 receiving yards, Diontae Johnson over 67.5 receiving yards
Last week: 4-6
Season record: 35-36
Fitz’s Favorite Week 8 Player Prop Bets
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Oct. 24.
Jordan Love OVER 260.5 passing yards
Yeah, you can talk me into backing one of the most exciting young passers in the game against a truly odious pass defense. The Jaguars are giving up 288.6 passing yards per game and 8.0 yards per attempt. Their opponent’s passer rating of 113.7 is the worst in the league. And the Jaguars have a pass-funnel defense because they're much better at defending the run than the pass. Opponents have thrown on the Jaguars on 60.9% of their offensive snaps, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Love has completed 70.8% of his throws in his last two games and should feast on the Jaguars' Swiss cheese secondary.
Jameis Winston OVER 235.5 passing yards
Winston will be making his first start of the season in place of Deshaun Watson, who's out for the rest of the year after tearing his Achilles. Winston is a hyper-aggressive downfield passer who doesn't mind throwing into tight coverage. But his opponent this week, Baltimore, isn't exactly known for tight coverage. The Ravens have allowed a league-high 2,159 passing yards, which works out to 308.4 yards per game. The Ravens' best cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, is questionable with a knee injury. Winston hasn't started a game since 2022, but he cleared this number in all three of the starts he made that year for the Saints that year, averaging 286.0 yards per game.
Drake Maye UNDER 203.5 passing yards
Maye has thrown for 243 and 276 yards in his first two NFL starts, but his second start came against the Jaguars, whose pass defense might be the worst in the league. Maye has a much tougher matchup this week against the Jets, who are giving up only 183.4 passing yards per game. Opponents are throwing on the Jets at the seventh-lowest rate in the league, passing on 50.5% of their offensive snaps. The Patriots have one of the worst groups of wide receivers in the league. Maye will be hard-pressed to clear this number.
Joe Mixon OVER 76.5 rushing yards
Mixon has run for more than 100 yards in all three of the games he's started and finished this season, averaging 22.7 rushing attempts in those contests. He's averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Mixon and the Texans have an appealing home matchup against a Colts defense that's giving up 125.1 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry to running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 48.5 rushing yards
Rhamondre had only seven carries for 18 yards against the Jaguars last weekend in London, and that disappointing performance is a big reason Stevenson's rushing prop is so low this week. Stevenson missed Week 6 with a foot injury, which might explain why his workload was so modest in Week 7. But the Patriots need to make an earnest effort to run the ball to avoid overexposing rookie QB Drake Maye to the pass rush. Stevenson and the Patriots are up against a run-funnel Jets defense that's much better against the pass than the run. Opponents have run the ball against the Jets on 49.5% of their offensive plays. The Jets have given up the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs.
Ray Davis OVER 24.5 rushing yards
Davis isn't the lead back in Buffalo; that job still belongs to James Cook. But Davis earned weekly snaps and touches with an outstanding performance against the Jets in Week 6 when Cook was out. Davis had 97 rushing yards and 152 yards from scrimmage that day. He probably won't roll up those types of yardage totals this week against the Seahawks, but he should be able to clear this low bar if he gets just 5-6 carries. The Bills face a squishy Seattle run defense that's giving up 129.0 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry to running backs.
Alvin Kamara UNDER 54.5 rushing yards
Kamara has averaged only 25.3 rushing yards over his last three games. Rookie QB Spencer Rattler will be making another start in place of the injured Derek Carr. With Rattler starting the last two weeks, Kamara has had 40 and 10 rushing yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry over those two games. Kamara revealed earlier this week that he's played with a broken hand for the last two weeks. This week, he'll be facing a Chargers run defense that ranks 12th in DVOA and has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards to running backs.
Jordan Mason OVER 79.5 rushing yards
The 49ers have all sorts of injury problems among their pass catchers. Brandon Aiyuk is out for the year with a knee injury. Deebo Samuel is questionable for Week 8 with pneumonia, and Jauan Jennings is doubtful with a hip injury. TE George Kittle is dealing with a sprained foot. The 49ers have a bye coming up in Week 9, and Christian McCaffrey could return soon after. I wouldn't be surprised if they let Jordan Mason carry the ball 25 or more times this week against the Cowboys. The Dallas run defense ranks 29th in DVOA and is giving up 4.6 yards per carry to running backs.
Cedric Tillman OVER 38.5 receiving yards
With Amari Cooper traded from the Browns to the Bills last week, Tillman stepped up to fill the void. The second-year receiver was targeted 12 times against the Bengals and had eight catches for 81 yards. The Browns' passing game could improve with the aggressive Jameis Winston at quarterback in place of the injured Deshaun Watson, and Tillman has an outstanding matchup against the Ravens' porous pass defense, which is giving up 179.7 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Kyle Pitts OVER 42.5 receiving yards
Pitts has topped this number in three straight games and four of his last five. Over his last three games, Pitts has averaged 7.3 targets, 5.7 catches and 74.3 receiving yards. He has a Week 8 matchup against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Rachaad White OVER 22.5 receiving yards
Here's my favorite player prop of the week. White is averaging 3.8 catches and 33 receiving yards per game, but his pass-catching profile is enhanced this week now that the Buccaneers are going to be without star WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who were both injured in the Buccaneers' Monday-night loss to the Ravens. White had six catches for 71 yards in that game, and it's a good bet that he'll continue to be heavily involved in the passing game with Tampa Bay's two best pass catchers out of commission. White should sail past this number on Sunday against the Falcons.
Tyreek Hill UNDER 82.5 receiving yards
Sure, Hill could smash this number now that Tua Tagovailoa is back at quarterback for the Dolphins. But is it reasonable to expect Tua to be in peak form after being out with a concussion since Week 2? This is a high bar for Hill to clear, and I think the under is the right percentage play.
Darius Slayton UNDER 26.5 receiving yards
Slayton had a couple of nice games when rookie sensation Malik Nabers missed two weeks with a concussion, but Slayton just hasn't been very involved when Nabers has been healthy. In the five games Nabers has played, Slayton has averaged 3.6 targets, 2.2 catches and 26.6 receiving yards. Also, Slayton is a vertical receiver, and Giants QB Daniel Jones had very little time to throw last week with star left tackle Andrew Thomas injured. The absence of Thomas could be a major problem for the Giants this week against a fierce Pittsburgh pass rush, so I doubt Jones will be able to do much business downfield.