West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Baylor Bears Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Baylor has been the surprise of the BIG 12. They are 4-1, with their lone loss coming from #12 Oklahoma St. The week before their loss, they had a quality win against Iowa State, who has the #2 overall defense in college football. Based on that, we know that this team can score. The issue they had against Oklahoma St was third downs. They went 3-15 on converting third downs. Going into this matchup against West Virginia, this is going to be something for bettors to consider. Will Baylor convert third downs?

West Virginia has had a rough start to 2021. Starting 2-3, West Virginia has played tough teams this year. They lost 13-16 against #4 Oklahoma and beat #15 Virginia Tech 27-21. That means West Virginia is better on paper than their record shows. The bad thing about West Virginia is that their record against the spread is about the same as their record this year. They are 2-5 against the spread in its last seven games. Before bettors bet on this matchup, they are going to need to know a few key things.

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Details

• Opening Lines: Baylor  -2.5, Total 44.5
• Last Game: October 3, 2020, West Virginia 21-21
• Current Winning Streak: West Virginia (1)
• West Virginia is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven games

Overview

Baylor has been a well-balanced team this year. Currently, they are ranked #29 in total offense and #32 in total defense. Baylor is also 13-5 on the Moneyline in their last 18 home games. The balance of this year’s team, plus their record while playing at home, makes this a great combination going into this week’s game. Baylor is also 3-1 at home against West Virginia, and QB Gerry Bohanon completes 74% of his passes at home. This team is much better at home than away and can score against a good defense, which is beneficial going up against West Virginia. West Virginia is the #34 defense in college football, which means they have proven they can score against a good defense is going to be a big part of who wins this game. 

West Virginia has a great defense. They have been able to hold some of the best teams in college football to low-scoring games. Defensively, they are only allowing 18 points per game. The issue with West Virginia is on offense. QB Jarret Doege has a 63.8% completion percentage during away games, and the West Virginia running backs averaged 3.5 yards per rush. This team is going to struggle to outscore Baylor. Defensively they match up well, but offensively they don’t have the firepower that Baylor has.

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Bottom Line

The home team is 8-1 in this matchup. Statistically, Baylor is much better at home, and West Virginia is much worse when playing away. West Virginia is 1-6 straight up in their last seven road games. Baylor is 13-5 at home.  Both these teams are similar on defense, but Baylor has the better offense. They can run the ball and throw the ball well. That is going to be the difference in this game. Baylor does a better job at scoring. With the better offense and home-field advantage, the Baylor Moneyline is the play.

Pick: Baylor Moneyline  (-139)

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Cameron Lynch is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Cameron, check out his archive and follow him @captron26.