Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Michigan State Spartans Game Odds & Pick (2021)
Western Kentucky continues its 2021 Big10 tour after competing well with Indiana last week. These Conference USAers defended their home in Bowling Green, recording a shootout loss 33-31 that raised some eyebrows on their offense and Indiana’s football program. Michigan State survived last week’s test against Nebraska, taking OT for an outcome. Their offense has been unstoppable in the early season until the second half against the Cornhuskers. This week, these two explosive units will try to outdo each other in East Lansing.
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Pags’ NCAAF Picks YTD: 13-4-1 (+9.0 units)
Details
- Opening Line: Michigan State -8
- Current Line: Michigan State -11.5
- Over/Under: 63.5
- Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
- Start Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Last Meeting: Never met
Overview
Michigan State’s defense hasn’t put a complete game together yet. They have allowed some chunk plays, extended drives, and made costly mistakes, all of which have put the offense in a position to carry the load. However, the Spartans’ defensive line is a strength, and they showed their might last week recording seven sacks on Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez. Getting pressure from every player in the rotation is key to helping the solo coverages they like to run outside. Pressure needs to be an ingredient on Saturday too.
That is because Western Kentucky travels north with their Air Raid offense in tow. QB Bailey Zappe is the nation’s eighth-most accurate passer, completing over 73% of throws. These aren’t dink and dunk tosses either. Zappe completes 29 passes per contest, averaging 14.1 yards per completion! The Hilltoppers pose a threat each week to scoreboard operators nationwide.
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Trends
- Michigan State is 3-16-1 in their last 20 HOME games against the spread
- Totals have gone OVER in 5 of Michigan State’s last 7 games
- Western Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
- Totals have gone OVER in 6 consecutive Western Kentucky games
- This is Michigan State and Western Kentucky’s first-ever meeting
Bottom Line
Another shootout looms. FanDuel Sportsbook’s total of 63.5 is in serious jeopardy with these two high-scoring offenses on the field. It is my favorite bet of the game. The 11.5 point spread, however, is another story. If Michigan State’s defensive line can throw off the timing of Zappe and company, this could be a blowout. With a clean pocket, the Hilltopper’s QB has a passer rating of 144.4, but when there is pressure, that number drops to 61.6. The Spartans have been quiet on the status of premier DE Drew Beesley’s injury. If we knew the stud defender was playing, we’d put the whole unit on the cover. But, for now, we will keep it at half.
Prediction: Michigan State 41, Western Kentucky 25
The Picks: Michigan State -11.5 | 0.5 units, OVER 63.5 | 1.0 units
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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.