Which NFL Betting Trends Should You Trust?

NFL broadcasts love to tell you fun facts that mean nothing when deciding whether to place a bet.

You know the ones. Stuff like, “The Seahawks tend to cover the spread on the third Sunday in October when playing on the road in states that start between A and D as long as the temperature is over 57 degrees.”

Those are fun and silly but also very loud noises in the statistical picture. In this post, we will go over the NFL betting trends worth considering as you prepare to place your bets, as well as which trends can be left out of your analysis.

NFL Betting Trends to Study

Team Performance Trends

Look for consistent patterns in how teams perform in different situations, such as home vs. away games, divisional matchups, and after bye weeks.

Ignore: How the team does under a full moon

Best Teams Against the Spread (ATS) Overall

Pay attention to teams that consistently cover the spread. These teams not only win games but also outperform expectations set by bookmakers. Look for underdogs with decent offenses and friendly spreads.

Ignore: How the team performs when wearing a specific uniform

Teams Who Consistently Cover the Spread at Home

Home-field advantage does matter in the NFL, as studies have shown. How much of an advantage waxes and wanes depending on the year, and the books will reflect this. Just keep in mind that in 2022, only 13 teams were above .500 in covering the spread at home.

Ignore: Whether or not it is cold out if the game is played in a dome

Teams Who Cover The Spread On The Road

On the opposite side of the coin are those who consistently close the gap when they are the away team. Since 2013, there have been 14 teams who cover the spread on the road more than 50 percent of the time. The top three are the Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs.

Ignore: The “inside information” your brother-in-law thinks he has

Team Performance Coming Off of a Bye Week

Some teams do really well covering the spread following their bye week. (High five to the Detroit Lions for having gone 8-2 over the past 10 years.) Some teams, um, do not. (Cleveland has gone 1-8-1 in the same time period.)

Ignore: Whether your lucky number came up in the lottery the night before

Matchups That Routinely Go Under or Over

It takes two to tango on an over/under, so recent matchups between the teams can provide key insight, as well as how many points a team tends to put up at home/on the road.

Remember, not all trends are equally valuable. Focus on trends that are backed by data and analysis, and consider the context of each game, including injuries, team dynamics, and recent performances. Combining historical trends with your understanding of the current NFL landscape will help you make more informed and successful betting choices.

For more detailed insights into specific trends and their implications, refer to our Betting 101 page and stay updated with the latest NFL news and analyses.

AI was used to assist with this article.