Will Matthew Stafford Go Over/Under 4100.5 Passing Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)

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DraftKings Sportsbook currently has a very intriguing player prop for a quarterback who has not found much success in terms of wins and losses, but has always been a contender to lead the league in passing yards throughout his career. 

Matthew Stafford is coming off a short-lived 2019 campaign that saw him start only eight games due to a back injury. Questions circled Detroit during the beginning of the offseason about whether he would even suit up for the Lions this year. Those questions have been pushed to the side for now, as Stafford tries to rebound and get back to his usual gunslinging form. This will be a big year for Stafford. If he doesn't perform this season, he is likely on his way out.

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Will Matthew Stafford Go Over/Under 4100.5 Passing Yards?

Stafford has cleared 4,100 passing yards in all but one of his full seasons, oftentimes by a wide margin. Between 2011 and 2017, he never once threw for under 4,200 yards despite the Lions rarely contending. But what's happened of late? In 2018, Stafford threw for just 3,777 yards in what was admittedly a down year. He then followed it up with a season cut short by injury.

However, Stafford was well on his way to one of the best seasons of his career. Through eight games last season, he racked up 2,499 yards, 19 touchdowns, and just five interceptions.

News out of Detroit is that his back is fully recovered, which means Stafford should continue to build off last year’s performance in 2020. Keep in mind, after Stafford's early-career shoulder injuries, he has consistently proven to be one of the toughest quarterbacks in the game, constantly playing through injuries on his way to producing huge passing numbers.

So why isn't this over-under line higher? A lot of the hesitation has to do with the fact that the Lions are once again predicted to finish last in the NFC North. Without a solid team around him, and with injuries starting to creep up late in his career, Stafford could see his season cut short yet again. But if there is one thing Stafford has proven throughout his career, it's that he wants to play even if his team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. With the expanded playoff format this season, the Lions will likely be in the hunt for most of the 17 weeks anyway.

Just take a look at his weapons. Stafford will reunite with two solid young targets in Kenny Golladay and T.J. Hockenson, and a couple of veterans in Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. The Lions were competitive with Stafford under center last season and will try to build off that success early this season.

The main concern is if Stafford can stay healthy. The Lions have struggled in the last decade to find a consistent running game. While they always want to run the ball more, Stafford will still get his yards. At the end of the day, that’s this team’s identity.

Stafford knows that a lot of people in Detroit are looking for him to have a huge season or pack his bags and head elsewhere. He's always been a competitor who has snatched more victories from the jaws of defeat than almost any quarterback since entering the league. Stafford will likely have to do the same this season as he tries to get the Lions not just into the playoffs, but also finally earn a postseason victory.

If he stays healthy, Stafford is not just going to clear this number. He’s going to crush it.

The Pick: Matthew Stafford over 4100.5 passing yards (-110)

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.