Will Ryan Tannehill Go Over/Under 22.5 Passing Touchdowns? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
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Not all NFL futures wagering has to be in the form of Super Bowl bets or season win totals. A popular alternative to team futures is betting on season-long player props. Sportsbooks everywhere post various amounts of these props. The most common offerings include total yardage (passing, rushing, receiving, or any combination involving two or more of these categories) and total touchdowns.
Unlike futures wagers on a player to lead the league in a statistical category, individual player props isolate a specific player's situation, given that it is a bet of whether they will go over or under the set line. A deep dive into the various player props available is sure to uncover a few offerings worthy of a wager. One such player prop that I like for the 2020-21 NFL season is Ryan Tannehill's passing touchdowns.
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Ryan Tannehill Passing Touchdowns Over/Under Prop Bet
Over 22.5 (-110)
Under 22.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Ryan Tannehill Statistical Breakdown
After spending the first six seasons of his NFL career as a member of the Miami Dolphins, Ryan Tannehill experienced a career resurrection of sorts last season, his first with the Tennessee Titans. The 31-year old took over as the team's starting quarterback in mid-October and never looked back. The Titans closed the regular season going 7-3 to secure a playoff spot and ultimately advanced to the AFC Championship Game.
Something that stands out from Tannehill's 2019-20 statistics is that he passed for 2 or more touchdowns in all but one regular-season game in which he started. He piled up 3 passing touchdowns on a trio of occasions while posting a season-high 391 yards passing in one of those games. The chart below shows Tannehill's final season marks in several different statistical categories.
Last season saw Tannehill set career marks in completion percentage (70.3%), yards per attempt (9.6), yards per completion (13.6), and interceptions (6). The fact that these statistics came in what was a shortened season by virtue of his not taking over as the starter until mid-October should only spur more optimism for the upcoming campaign. His 22 passing touchdowns would have only been higher had he played a full season. The career-low in interceptions is also important, considering that he struggled in that area throughout his time in Miami.
Ryan Tannehill Season Outlook
After their Cinderella run as the 6-seed in the AFC Playoffs last year, the Tennessee Titans will look to build on their success. To take the next steps as a team, they will need consistent play from their quarterback first and foremost. Even with the COVID-19 pandemic casting its shadow on the NFL offseason and voluntary workouts ahead of training camp, one would have to believe that the additional rapport Tannehill will have with his receivers in year two will pay dividends.
The connection between Tannehill and 2019-20 rookie wideout A.J. Brown took the league by storm. Brown has to be considered the team's top receiver entering this season, but Corey Davis and Adam Humphries are both capable options as well. Tannehill also connected with tight end Jonnu Smith regularly last year. In the red zone, Smith showed that he can be a big, athletic target. Of course, the rushing attack led by star Derrick Henry is the backbone of the offense. With defenses having to key in on stopping it, Tannehill figures to see plenty of good looks out of play-action sets.
Ryan Tannehill Passing Touchdowns Prop Bet Pick
There is a lot to like about the future for Tannehill and the Titans offense. The offensive line remains mostly intact, and there is a wealth of skill-position talent. I like the over on 22.5 passing touchdowns for Tannehill. Considering he threw 22 touchdown passes in only 11 starts last year, I love his chances to go over the mark with a full season's worth of games.
In trying to make some sense of why Tannehill's passing touchdowns is what it is at 22.5, I feel that the presumption that the Titans' pass attack is vastly inferior to the running game has a lot to do with it. While it is true that Derrick Henry and rookie Darrynton Evans will be heavily featured in Tennessee's offensive game plan, Tannehill still put up great stats with Henry lining up behind him last season. He may not have the same number of pass attempts as other notable NFL quarterbacks, but he displayed tremendous efficiency with those attempts last year. A similar offensive game plan, five additional games as the starter, and widespread continuity on the Titans' offense as a whole have me feeling very confident in this Tannehill TD prop.
The Pick: Tannehill OVER 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.