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WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/21)

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Welcome back to another night of WNBA picks and predictions! We have two games on tap for Friday night, but both are intriguing matchups as we pinpoint our WNBA best bets. The Las Vegas Aces host the Connecticut Sun in tonight’s headliner while Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever take on the Atlanta Dream. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these top WNBA predictions and betting picks!

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Friday’s Best WNBA Picks 

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Indiana Fever (-3) at Atlanta Dream – 163.5 O/U (-108/-112)

The early WNBA game tonight features the Atlanta Dream hosting the Indiana Fever. Despite the weaker records for both teams, we get a matchup between a pair of former No. 1 picks in this one. Atlanta’s Rhyne Howard, the 2022 top pick, and Indiana’s Caitlin Clark go head-to-head as two of the league’s best young guards. 

After a slow start to the season, Indiana has picked it up lately. The Fever have won four of their last five games while averaging 85.4 PPG in this stretch. The offense, led by Clark’s 16.3 PPG, has begun to gel more. Guard Kelsey Mitchell is averaging 18.1 PPG over the past seven games while Aliyah Boston, last year’s No. 1 pick, is putting up 20.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per over the past four contests. Then there’s Clark, who is always capable of scoring 20-30 points on any given night. 

The Fever defense, though, is the worst in the league. They’re last in points allowed per game (88.4) and opposing field-goal percentage (45.5%) with the second-worst opposing three-point percentage (37.3%). Unsurprisingly, Indiana has the worst defensive rating as well. 

With Indiana’s poor defense and an offensive attack trending up, we’re seeing a trend in the betting market. The Fever are 12-4 to the Over this year and continuously tend to play in higher-scoring games. They’ve hit the Over in 12 of the past 14 games, including six straight. 

Atlanta, despite averaging a league-low 75.7 PPG this season, the offense has come alive against weaker the WNBA’s defenses. The Dream put up 87 and 92 points against Los Angeles in two matchups, 89 against Chicago, 83 against Dallas, 85 against Phoenix, and 84 against Indiana. 

The Dream should bounce back offensively after being held to just 55 points against an elite Minnesota defense on Wednesday. Rhyne Howard (15.4 PPG) and Allisha Gray (15.2 PPG) can lead Atlanta’s offense to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Howard, specifically, scored 26 points against the Fever just last week. Three other Dream scorers also finished with double-digit points in that game. 

On that note, these two teams combined for 175 total points when they previously met. We could see a similar high-scoring affair tonight in the rematch. In that game, an Indiana win, Clark only scored seven points in one of her worst shooting performances of the season. Expect a better offensive game from Clark while Boston (27 points vs. Atlanta) and Mitchell (24 points) can repeat their successes as well. 

WNBA Pick: Over 163.5 Totals Points (-108)

Connecticut Sun at Las Vegas Aces (-6) | 163.5 O/U (-110/-110)

Two of the WNBA’s top teams face off tonight as the Connecticut Sun take on the Las Vegas Aces. It’s a matchup pitting the league’s highest-scoring offense against the best defense. Something has to give here, so let’s break it down. 

It’s been an up-and-down start to the season for Las Vegas, who sit at 7-6 straight-up and just 4-9 against the spread (ATS). However, the arrow is pointing up for the Aces now that Chelsea Gray is back in the lineup. The veteran point guard made her season debut this week and made an immediate impact with seven assists, four rebounds, and two blocks in 16 minutes. Gray’s return gives Vegas a legit fourth playmaker alongside A’ja Wilson (27.9 PPG), Jackie Young (19.0 PPG), and Kelsey Plum (18.2 PPG). 

That foursome is why the Aces are the two-time defending WNBA champs. Gray’s presence was a notable loss early this season, and her return cannot be understated. Vegas now doesn’t have to rely on the supporting cast as much while Gray brings her natural ball-handling and a decade of experience into the rotation. With her back, the Aces covered as 6.5-point favorites vs. Seattle on Wednesday. 

Although the Sun are allowing a league-low 70.7 PPG this season, the defense hasn’t been nearly as dominant against the league’s top offenses with 82 points allowed to both New York and Minnesota. The Aces come in ranking first in points per game (87.4), second in three-point percentage (34.7%), first in pace, and second in offensive rating. This will be arguably the toughest matchup so far for Connecticut. 

As impressive as Connecticut’s 13-1 record is this season, it deserves a bit of context. The Sun have benefited from an easier schedule so far with only two games against teams with positive point differentials. The results? A one-point overtime win vs. Minnesota in May and a seven-point loss to New York earlier this month. 

Las Vegas, on the other hand, has five such matchups under their belt already with all of them coming in the past nine games. The Aces have gone through a gauntlet of a schedule and simply are more battle-tested at this point than the Sun. We need to see Connecticut prove it against better competition. By the way, they are 1-2 ATS against teams with winning records this year and 0-1 ATS as an underdog. 

The situation spot for both teams also favors Las Vegas tonight. The Sun played at home earlier this week (against an easy opponent in Los Angeles) and had to travel across the country for their furthest road game of the season so far. The Aces, meanwhile, will be playing their third straight home game and just had to deal with New York and Seattle. 

So, we have a Connecticut team likely due for some negative regression and a Las Vegas squad that’s still the back-to-back champions and trending up. The oddsmakers are also telling us something with Vegas favored by multiple possessions here. Let’s back the Aces to cover the spread. 

WNBA Pick: Aces -6 (-110)

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