WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (9/29)
The WNBA playoffs are among us and the semifinals kick off today. All four remaining teams are in action today starting with the Atlanta Dream facing off against the New York Liberty at noon central. When betting, monitor any news and shop around for the best odds. This is the best way to get ahead of the books. The difference between -110 and -120 may not seem big, but it's a big difference throughout an entire season. Either way, let's get to my favorite bets of the day.
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Sunday’s Best WNBA Picks
Last Time: 3-1 | Season: 18-12
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty
Here we goooooo. A rematch of the 2023 Finals in a delightful start to the WNBA semis with the Aces facing off against the Liberty. These two teams have been powerhouses all season, with the Liberty securing the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage.
The Liberty, led by MVP candidate Breanna Stewart and sharpshooter Sabrina Ionescu, are coming off a sweep of the Atlanta Dream in the first round of the playoffs. Ionescu has been on fire, averaging 26.5 points per game in the postseason. With a versatile offense and home-court advantage at Barclays Center, they'll look to continue their dominance.
The Aces, on the other hand, are the defending champions and finished the regular season strong despite injury struggles earlier in the year. A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Kelsey Plum lead a stacked team with championship experience. Wilson, in particular, has been a dominant force both offensively and defensively, averaging 22.5 points per game. The Aces swept the Seattle Storm in the first round and will look to carry that momentum into the semifinals.
The game sits around a four-point spread with a 162.5 total. New York is a clean 3-0 against the Aces on the season and plays their best defense against Las Vegas. If there is a side to pick here, it's clear.
I am usually analytically driven by my bets, which I would advise for anyone trying to make a living or consistently win in the sports betting world. This may be an exception. If you've read any of the quotes for this upcoming series the Liberty are hungry for revenge. This is a team that seems to just have all engines humming, ranking as the best team in basketball in the second half of the season.
Looking at the numbers I expect the Liberty defense to handle the Aces offense. A trend in these teams' previous games was how the games would be close until eventually, Las Vegas hit a scoring rut and Ionescu or Stewart would lead New York on a double-digit scoring run. For today's game, it just seems to be a matter of when that happens.
The Aces with the championship-brand name and playoff expectations push this spread to sit at 4.0. Looking at these teams wholistically, and knowing the fire that will be motivating the Liberty, I have to take the points with the favorite here.
Best Bet: Liberty -4.0 (-105 at Caesars)
Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx
The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun face off in the other semifinal series, in what promises to be an intense matchup of offense versus defense.
The Lynx are led by Napheesa Collier, who has been on fire in the postseason, averaging 40 points per game, including a record-breaking 42-point performance against the Phoenix Mercury. Can she keep it up against the Sun? Minnesota thrives on its high-scoring offense, with Collier at the center, supported by sharpshooters Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton. Minnesota was the only team to average triple digits in points scored during the first round, highlighting their offensive firepower.
On the other side, the Sun boast the league's best defense, anchored by Alyssa Thomas. She's a triple-double threat and will likely be tasked with slowing down Collier. Connecticut will also rely on the scoring prowess of DeWanna Bonner and Marina Mabrey, whose perimeter shooting can be a game-changer. The Sun held opponents to the fewest points per game in the regular season and will aim to disrupt Minnesota's rhythm.
In the season series, the Sun lead 2-1 but Minnesota earned the win most recently a couple of weeks back and each game has been within five points, with an overtime thriller earlier in the season. Get the popcorn ready folks.
The question as mentioned before is if Connecticut can stop Collier. My guess is no. She's not only straight humming this postseason but last outing she posted 25 on the Sun after going 11-16 from the field. It's a small sample size but she also scored 31 back in May across 44 minutes in the overtime match, but she can't do it all. In the last 10 games of the regular season, the Sun have kept up their prowess on defense while the Lynx dropped to seventh in offensive rating. A bit surprising, I know. After facing a swiss cheese of a defense in the Mercury, this total has been inflated too far. I expect a more grind-it-out type game where the Sun will control the pace a bit more as the slowest-paced team all season and provide a shell shock to the Minnesota offense. I still expect this game to come down to the wire and think the spread is perfectly priced, but I am comfortable taking the under here.
Best Bet: Under 155 Total Points (-115 at DraftKings)
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