WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/28)
The WNBA playoff picture is coming into more focus this month with a number of postseason spots up for grabs. Wednesday features a loaded five-game slate as we dive into our top WNBA picks and bets. Our best bets tonight focus on the Lynx vs. Mercury and the Liberty vs. Sparks matchups. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these top WNBA predictions and betting picks!
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) at Phoenix Mercury – O/U 162.5 (-110/-110)
Our first WNBA pick tonight brings us to a late tipoff between the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury. While the Lynx have locked up a postseason berth already, this game still means plenty to both teams in terms of playoff seeding. Let’s see how to bet on this entertaining Wednesday night matchup.
Minnesota has been on a roll over the past two weeks. Since the Olympic break, the Lynx are 5-0 both straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) with each of their victories coming by double-digits and winning by an average of 12.2 PPG. Star Napheesa Collier is playing at a high level in this stretch, averaging 25.6 PPG.
The Mercury, meanwhile, have had mixed results since the WNBA season resumed. They are 3-3 over the past six games and just lost by 14 at home to New York on Monday. That large deficit continues a worrisome trend for Phoenix, which has regularly struggled against the league’s top teams this season.
When facing the top seven teams in the current WNBA standings, the Mercury are 4-13 SU and 7-10 ATS this year – including 0-7 SU & ATS in the past seven instances. Conversely, they usually take advantage of the lower-tier teams in the league, but when Phoenix faces tougher competition, it doesn’t go well. The Mercury are now 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs, losing by an average of 15.3 PPG in that stretch.
The Phoenix offense has especially struggled against elite competition. When facing the WNBA’s top three teams and defenses (New York, Connecticut, Minnesota), the Mercury are averaging just 71.9 PPG this season. In turn, they are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in those games.
The Mercury’s offensive inconsistencies will likely come to the forefront in this matchup against Minnesota’s top-tier defense. The Lynx are first in both opposing field-goal percentage (41.0%) and three-point percentage (29.2%) this year. Earlier this season, Minnesota held Phoenix to 71 and 60 points in two of their three matchups – winning by 24 and 13 points, respectively, in those contests.
Finally, the Lynx also have a notable rest advantage coming into tonight. Minnesota last played on Saturday – beating Indiana by 10 points – while Phoenix has a quick turnaround from Monday night’s contest. Take the road favorites to cover the spread as the Lynx earn another comfortable victory.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -3.5 (-108)
New York Liberty (-12.5) at Los Angeles Sparks – O/U 162.5 (-110/-110)
Another late-night WNBA tipoff on Wednesday features the Los Angeles Sparks hosting the New York Liberty. While this is a matchup between the best and worst teams in the league, don’t overlook the home underdog to cover the large spread. Let’s break it down.
Los Angeles’ season-to-forget has continued since the Olympic break with six straight losses in August. Though their 6-24 overall record this season is ugly, the Sparks are about even when it comes to the spread (14-15-1 ATS). They’re losing a ton, but the deficits haven’t been as large as you’d think. In fact, five of their last seven losses have been by single digits.
New York, meanwhile, is 5-1 since the break and just beat Phoenix by 14 on the road on Monday. Despite a league-best 26-5 record this season, though, the Liberty aren’t as good against the spread with a 16-15 ATS mark. There’s no denying how good the Liberty are, but this could be an interesting spot to fade them.
Wednesday night’s matchup against Los Angeles sets up as a classic sandwich spot for New York. There’s both letdown and look-ahead potential here. The Liberty just beat the Mercury on the road on Monday and will travel to Seattle to face the Storm on Friday. In the middle of these higher-profile matchups against playoff-bound teams is this game against the lowly Sparks. Can anyone blame the Liberty for looking a bit past Los Angeles in this spot?
That narrative also fits some ATS trends for both teams. New York is just 2-12 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, failing to cover six of the last seven instances. Conversely, the Liberty are 14-3 ATS when favored by single-digits or as underdogs. This is a proven pattern of the Liberty failing to blowout the bad teams while being more focused and prepared to face better competition.
On the other side, the Sparks are 9-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs this season and 11-4 ATS as underdogs of 7+ points. This includes two matchups against New York earlier this year when LA covered as 14.5-point underdogs both times. It may seem scary, but roll with the Sparks to keep it closer than the spread suggests here.
WNBA Pick: Los Angeles Sparks +12.5 (-112)
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