WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/13)
We finally made it to the WNBA playoffs! It has been quite a successful season so I hope you have tailed throughout the year because it has truly been something special. With the playoffs, every team has a clean slate and hopes of winning it all. Now, of course, the Aces are still the odds-on favorite to claim another title, but they showed they were not invincible down the stretch with some losses. I'll open it up a bit with the playoffs so here's to having a blast. Remember to shop around for the best odds and unless otherwise specified each bet will be a single unit wager.
Last Time: 1-0
Season: 29-20
Wednesday’s Best WNBA Bets
All bets are 1 unit.
Chicago Sky at Las Vegas Aces
The Chicago Sky just squeaked into the playoffs. Hooray!! Their reward? Facing off against the juggernaut of an Aces team as they find themselves 16.5-point underdogs with an over/under right around 170 depending on what book you look at. To say the Sky have an uphill battle would be the understatement of the century.
What jumps off the page to me is the rebounding disparity expected in this game. The Aces may rank sixth in overall rebound rate but they lead the league in defensive boards, a category the Sky ranks 11th in. You have to take advantage of every Aces miss, and I don't trust Chicago to do that.
You also have to stop the Aces from scoring in the first place if you want hopes to win, obviously, but the Chicago defense is sub-par, and ranks 11th this year in defensive rating on the road. At least in their last five games, they've played solid so perhaps they can ride some momentum into Vegas.
Both teams shot a lot from beyond the arc with Chicago surprisingly ranking second in the league in three-point shooting percentage this year. This bodes well for a Sky team that will be forced to take a lot of shots if they plan on keeping up with a significant uptick in pace.
The way I see this playing out is the Aces maintaining a double-digit lead with the Sky staying chippy and continuing to put up a high volume of shots. There will be a whole lot of everything here and while I expect the spread to be pretty spot on, the total points are not. My main play is the over, but feel free to sprinkle in the player props to go along with it if you're feeling some SGP action.
Best Bets:
Over 169.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Kahleah Copper Over 18.5 Points (-148 at BetRivers)
A'ja Wilson Over 9.5 Rebounds (-125 at DraftKings)
A'ja Wilson Over 23.5 Points (-110 at Caesars)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun
While the Lynx still find themselves as roughly a 9.5-point underdog with an over/under around 159.5, this game has far more intrigue than the former. Minnesota finds themselves in the playoffs after starting the year 0-6. I don't want to say they're playing with house money at this point but they should be quite proud for getting to where they are now.
Connecticut, the #3 seed, finds themselves with high aspirations to shock the WNBA, riding their 27 wins into the sunset and taking down the league crown. Their path to the finals goes through Alyssa Thomas, the definition of a difference maker. Her team had nearly a 30-point swing in net rating when she was on vs. off the court. The Sun need her to show out for this game.
I am not sure where Minnesota goes for production. Napheesa Collier is an MVP-level player, sure, but despite her 21.5 points per game average, her underlying efficiency metrics leave much to be desired, especially against a Sun team with the second-best defensive rating in the league.
What helps is how the Sun won't push the pace of play, playing at the 10th slowest pace in the WNBA in 2023. Minnesota has seen this Connecticut team four times this year but has come away with just one victory. They will have to be more deliberate on offense, patient enough to find open looks, and hope a couple of bounces go their way.
I simply have to trust the past production for future predictions. Thomas has eaten these Lynx alive and I don't see any reason why that won't happen here again tonight. This Sun defense does not get enough credit and I expect that to change after this series.
Best Bets:
Under 160 (-113 at BetRivers)
Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 Rebounds (-115 at DraftKings)
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