WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/17)
The 2024 WNBA season rolls on with a fun two-game slate on tap for Friday. The Connecticut Sun host the Washington Mystics in the early tip and the Seattle Storm take on the Minnesota Lynx in the late matchup. Let’s dive into our top WNBA picks and best bets for both games as you enjoy the action.
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Friday’s Best WNBA Bets
(All odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
Washington Mystics at Connecticut Sun
The Connecticut Sun host the Washington Mystics in Friday night’s early WNBA tipoff. The Sun won their season opener against Indiana, 92-71. The Mystics, meanwhile, suffered an 85-80 loss in their first game against New York. Let’s see how these squads stack up for tonight’s matchup.
Connecticut’s defense is again one of the best in the WNBA. The Sun allowed a league-low 79.0 PPG last year while leading all teams in three-point defense and turnovers forced per game. They also had a top-tier defense in 2022, allowing 77.8 PPG (second in WNBA).
It’s only a one-game sample size, but the Sun held Caitlin Clark and the Fever to 71 points in Tuesday’s season opener while forcing 25 turnovers. This is a veteran team with a core of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, and Brionna Jones providing experience, defensive intensity, and length. The Sun also added defense-oriented guard Tiffany Mitchell in the offseason as a key bench piece.
The Mystics could have some issues scoring against Connecticut’s stout defense. Washington lost two of its top players from last year with Elena Delle Donne sitting out and Natasha Cloud leaving in free agency. The offense now heavily revolves around guard Brittany Sykes with inconsistency around her. Ariel Atkins scored 20 points in the opener but can be a streaky perimeter scorer.
If Washington wants to pull the upset, it’ll need to lean on its own defense. Sykes anchors that end too as an All-Defensive First Team selection last year. Center Shakira Austin is a top-end post defender while fellow bigs Stefanie Dolson and rookie Aaliyah Edwards give the Mystics a solid interior presence.
The Mystics could have one of the better defenses in the league this year. They held the Liberty to 85 points on Tuesday, slightly below New York’s season average last year of 89.2 PPG as the WNBA’s second-best scoring offense. As strong as Connecticut is defensively, the offense has some slight concerns because of the older roster. Thomas and Bonner are both into their 30’s while Jones is still working her way back to full strength from an Achilles injury.
Let’s take the under with defense for both squads setting the tone in this game. Also, look for a Mystics team total under as well with the Sun likely taking care of business at home.
WNBA Picks: Under 158.5 Total Points (-110); Mystics Team Total Under
Seattle Storm at Minnesota Lynx
The Seattle Storm and Minnesota Lynx face off on Friday night in a rematch from their season opener earlier this week. The Lynx won, 83-70, on the road despite being 7.5-point underdogs. What’s in store for this second leg of the home-and-home?
Coming into this season, Seattle was widely viewed as a clear tier above Minnesota in league power ratings. Despite Tuesday’s result, the Storm still boast the third-shortest odds to win the WNBA title while the Lynx have the third-highest. It’s hard to ignore what just happened in that first meeting, but Seattle should be motivated to bounce back and get revenge.
Storm forward Nneka Ogwumike is one of the best players in the WNBA while Jewell Loyd and Skylar Diggins-Smith are a top-tier backcourt duo. The supporting cast around Seattle’s three stars is also very strong with All-Star center Ezi Magbegor being a premier defender and second-year guard Jordan Horston being a key bench piece. Rookie Nika Mühl sat out the opener but the first-round pick is expected to play tonight as well.
Seattle is a legit WNBA title contender and the offense will be much better than the 70-point showing on Tuesday. The Storm also shot just 11.1% from three-point range (1-for-9) as a team in the loss. There’s some positive regression there since Seattle went 11-for-30 (36.7%) and 9-for-28 (32.1%) from three in its two preseason games.
Loyd and Diggins-Smith combined to shoot 31.8% from the field (7-for-22) with only 20 points between them in that season opener. That likely won’t happen in back-to-back games, considering the duo’s proven talent. Lloyd averaged a league-high 24.7 PPG last year and Diggins-Smith was first-team All-WNBA as recently as 2022 (she sat out last season).
It’s also worth noting that the final 13-point margin of Minnesota’s win over Seattle is a bit misleading. It was a back-and-forth affair for the first three quarters and was only a three-point game heading into the fourth. The Lynx outscored the Storm, 20-10, in the final 10 minutes to pull away. Still, the game was in the balance almost all night – which is saying something when factoring in the shooting woes of Loyd and Diggins-Smith.
Give Minnesota credit, but it’ll be tough to beat Seattle twice in a row – even at home for the rematch. The Storm should be more keyed in defensively to slow down forwards Alanna Smith and Napheesa Collier, who combined for 42 points and 20 rebounds on Tuesday.
WNBA Pick: Storm Moneyline (-135)