Women’s College Basketball Odds & Picks: Duke vs. South Carolina (Thursday)

A day full of great women’s college basketball games concludes with No. 8 Duke taking on No. 3 South Carolina as part of the SEC/ACC Challenge. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET and will be broadcast by ESPN.

South Carolina is a heavy favorite despite both teams being ranked in the top 10. The Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook (+1000) gives Duke a 9.09% chance of pulling off the upset.

The two teams met last year on December 3td, a game in which the Blue Devils took a 20-18 lead after the first quarter. But South Carolina’s defense clamped down hard the rest of the way. It held Duke to nine points in the second and fourth quarters en route to a 77-61 victory.

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Duke vs. South Carolina Betting Preview

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Details

• Betting Line: South Carolina -15.5 (-110) | O/U: 137.5 (-110/-110)
• Location: Colonial Life Arena in Columbia, SC
• Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• Coverage: ESPN
• Last Meeting: December 3, 2023 - South Carolina won 77-61

Overview

Duke probably enters this game feeling like they have a fighting chance at pulling off an epic upset. After all, they are coming off a holiday weekend where they beat a pair of top-10 teams in the Ball Dawgs Classic. The Blue Devils had a 30+ point scorer in both games (Ashlon Jackson - 30 vs. Kansas State; Reigan Richardson - 35 vs. Oklahoma).

The wins resulted in Duke moving into the top 10 in the AP Top 25 Women’s College Basketball Poll ahead of tonight's showdown against the Gamecocks. Of course, playing and beating Kansas State and Oklahoma doesn't quite compare to facing South Carolina.

Duke's approach so far this season has been to let the offense lead the way. When you have one of the better shooting teams in the country (No. 25 in field goal percentage - 48.3%; No. 26 in scoring - 83.2 points per game), you can get away with that. It has given them some room to be a little lax on the defensive end of the court.

However, that approach may not be nearly as successful against a team like South Carolina, with a stingy defense (No. 25 - 54 points per game allowed) and a capable offense (No. 37 - 80 points per game). Duke will need to figure out how to slow down a solid Gamecocks offense while getting their own going against a good South Carolina defense.

Trends

• South Carolina leads the all-time series vs. Duke 7-2.
• Duke has never beaten the Gamecocks on the road; their last win over South Carolina was at home on December 4th, 2016 - 74-63.
• Duke's last win on the road against a ranked team was vs. No. 17 Syracuse on February 22nd, 2024 - 58-45.
• South Carolina has not lost at home since falling to NC State 54-46 on December 3rd, 2020.

Bottom Line

UCLA beat the Gamecocks by playing tough, suffocating defense. The Bruins held South Carolina to 10 and 12 points in the first two quarters and took a double-digit lead into the half. The Gamecocks went on to win the second half, 40-34, but the damage had already been done.

Duke’s defense is not strong enough to pull that off (No. 192 scoring defense - 64.1 points per game allowed). The South Carolina defense is not as good as UCLA's. But the Gamecocks will hold the Blue Devils under their season average (83.3). Since losing to UCLA, South Carolina has been explosive on offense and dominant on defense. They can hold Duke’s offense in check.

Pick: South Carolina -15.5 (-110)