Iowa vs. UConn: Final Four Odds & Picks (2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament)
In a showdown that embodies the pinnacle of women’s NCAA basketball, the stage is set for an epic clash between the #3 Connecticut Huskies and the #1 Iowa Hawkeyes.
I was the one who urged you to back Caitlin Clark and Co. against South Carolina’s Goliath last season, and then on Monday, I told you to back them to tame the Tigers in the Elite Eight. Let’s see where the value lies in this heavyweight Final Four bout.
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2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bet
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
#3 Connecticut Huskies vs. #1 Iowa Hawkeyes
Once upon a time, the next big thing in women’s college basketball was not Caitlin Clark…It was Paige Bueckers. Then Paige’s knees betrayed her, Caitlin Clark got into the hands of D-I strength coaches and started draining from 30+ feet consistently, and the game has never been the same…for the better.
What’s even crazier to think about is that Clark grew up a UConn fan idolizing Maya Moore. She would have been UConn’s and there is nothing Lisa Bluder could have done about it. Oh, what could have been if only Geno had asked…or even sent anyone to scout her, for that matter? Paige would still have been a Husky, regardless, assuming Geno had still landed Nika Mühl. Alas, Geno didn’t ask. Caitlin went to her home state, Iowa, Paige and Nika went to UConn, and everything else is history that all led to here.
Caitlin Clark slayed the dragon that was Angel Reese, Kim Mulkey, and the LSU Tigers. It’s only fitting that Geno Auriemma and the storied UConn Huskies, the team she grew up dreaming of playing for, stand in the way of her second straight appearance and final chance at a National Championship.
Paige and Caitlin go about things differently. Case in point: Paige ATTEMPTED 194 three-pointers this season, while Caitlin MADE 193 (of 508 attempts – 38%). Paige is a defensive ballhawk who has a nose for forcing turnovers and loves a good old-fashioned Pick-2. Different games, but the result is the same. Wins. Plain & simple.
It’s easy to paint this game as Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers, but it’s so much more than that. Both women are surrounded by incredibly talented rosters equally worthy of cutting down the nets in Cleveland.
UConn
On the UConn side, Bueckers has teammates like Nika Mühl, the Croatian facilitator who holds every UConn assists record there is. The one record she doesn’t hold is the most assists in school history…by a National Champion. She has plenty to play for as well, and the world has finally gotten to see what she and Paige are capable of when the latter can stay on the court for a whole season.
The chemistry between these two is electric, and it will be hard for the Hawkeyes to slow down. Nika already has 28 assists this tournament and 37 in her last five games dating back to the Big East Tournament Final against Georgetown. Then you have the woman with the coldest name in the game: Ice Brady. She lives up to her name under pressure with a knack for making big plays in big moments.
Iowa
On the Hawkeye side of the ball, gone are the likes of 4-time All-Big Ten First Teamer Monika Czinano (6'3), but in her place has been the anchor forward of Iowa's four-guard offense, Hannah Stuelke (6'2), who has been a force on the glass this season. The sophomore from Cedar Rapids is the team's second-leading scorer (13.8) behind only Clark, and her 6.8 rebound average is nearly two more than Czanino averaged (4.9) last season.
Another of those teammates is the X-Factor I targeted last game, Gabbie Marshall, the fifth-year senior from Cincinnati who signed on for one more ride. Gabbie is a glue gal. She may only average 6.2 points, 1.0 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, but she also averages 1.4 steals for her career and has 14 steals in her last nine games, including six in this year’s tournament. She only had three points against LSU, but she had two steals and a block while playing lockdown defense. She also chipped in 14 points in Iowa’s blowout Sweet 16 victory on Saturday and has a knack for hitting timely shots. She may be 5’9″ but her and Clark’s senior leadership cannot be underestimated.
Factor in Kate Martin, who you may remember from her head being knocked around repeatedly by LSU with almost nothing called. Martin averaged 13.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists and has seen those scoring and rebounding averages jump up in the Tournament to 14.3 and 9.8, respectively. She will play a big secondary scoring part if the Hawkeyes are going to punch their ticket to the Final.
The Pick
Caitlin Clark is hungrier than ever after coming up just short last season. This is also her collegiate farewell tour now that she has forgone her final year of eligibility and officially declared for the WNBA Draft. Clark has been on a mission since losing to the Tigers last April and her mindset and approach will be much different this time around. Clark went back into the lab this offseason and made her bag even deeper.
UConn’s roster has been decimated by injuries this season and the fact this squad has answered every bell and reached the Final Four is amazing. It is a credit the women left healthy and arguably one of Geno Auriemma’s best coaching jobs. Paive, Nika, and the gang just might not have enough bodies in what figures to be a grinder,
Both women are playing for a chance at what seems like their birthright: a National Title. Paige because she is a Husky, and they have 11 Nattys. Caitlin because a collegiate crown seems like the only fitting ending for a story like hers. This game is going to come down to the final minutes, but UConn will ultimately be another step in Caitlin Clark’s ascension.
Pick: Hawkeyes (-148)
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.