XFL Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2023)
The Orlando Guardians and San Antonio Brahmas are seeking their first win of the year. Both clubs lost in their openers. However, the losses were vastly different. The Guardians were boat-raced in the most lopsided game of the young XFL season. Yet, San Antonio’s loss was embarrassing for another reason. The Brahmas led 15-3 with five minutes and eight seconds remaining in the game and choked the contest away.
The St. Louis Battlehawks scored a touchdown in only one minute and 37 seconds and converted a three-point try. Then, they completed a 22-yard pass to convert their 4th and 15 from San Antonio’s 25-yard line instead of kicking an onside kick. The Battlehawks promptly marched down the field and scored a game-winning touchdown. Neither the Guardians nor Brahmas were impressive last week, and one bet, in particular, stands out as exciting.
The Roughnecks and Renegades successfully opened their 2022 campaigns, earning wins in their Week 1 contests. They might be the top teams in the XFL’s South Division, making this a potential playoff preview in the season’s second week.
Houston was the most impressive team in Week 1, winning by a week-high 21 points. Conversely, the Renegades started slowly and stormed back for a 22-20 win, tying for the second-most points scored in Week 1. Should gamblers anticipate more fireworks from these teams in Week 2?
Best XFL Bets for Week 2 (Sunday)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Antonio Brahmas at Orlando Guardians Under 38.5 Points (-110)
The Brahmas scored only 15 points in Week 1. Further, despite their embarrassing collapse, they held the Battlehawks to only 18 points. The Brahmas ran 75 total plays, which was a stellar number. However, they were a run-first team, attempting 39 rushes and only 36 passes. Thus, they’re content chewing up the clock and producing modest yardage at a time on the ground. It’s not a high-scoring formula.
Meanwhile, Orlando was an embarrassment in Week 1. They ran just 54 plays and scored a pitiful 12 points. Moreover, their first touchdown was a borderline play that could have - and maybe should have - been ruled an interception.
Things got so ugly for the Guardians that they benched starting quarterback Paxton Lynch during the contest. After scoring the highlighted touchdown above on their opening drive, they failed to score again until the 6:40 mark in the fourth quarter. Orlando’s offense was an unmitigated disaster.
So, the game’s under is an exciting wager. Additionally, historical data from spring football was also encouraging. In Week 2 in the AAF in 2019, the totals were 21, 38, 66 and 36 points. The average of those scores was 40.25 points, and the median was 37.0 points. In Week 2 of 2020 in the XFL, the totals were 27, 26, 43 and 52 points, yielding an average of 37.0 points and a median outcome of 35.0 points. Finally, in Week 2 in the USFL last year, the totals were 16, 53, 61 and 37 points, amounting to an average and median of 41.75 and 45.0 points, respectively. Overall, seven of the 12 contests went under this game’s total of 38.5 points, making the under the most exciting bet for this game.
Arlington Renegades at Houston Roughnecks Over 40.0 Points (-110)
Arlington’s 22 points were somewhat deceptive last week. The offense didn’t do much of the scoring. Instead, they had two pick-sixes (and a successful one-point try), accounting for 13 of the club’s 22 points.
Arlington ran 56 total plays. Unfortunately, Bob Stoops abandoned his pass-heavy tendencies from when he led the then-Dallas Renegades in the 2020 XFL. The team attempted 25 passes and 31 rushes. Could Stoops revert to a more pass-happy approach? Maybe. That would be ideal for their scoring potential. Additionally, Houston could force them to go blow for blow.
The Roughnecks picked up where they left off from the pandemic-ended 2020 season. Houston was the XFL’s only undefeated team (5-0) and scored a league-high 158 points, 29 more than the second-highest-scoring team. While the players have changed, young offensive guru AJ Smith still guides the Roughnecks’ offense. They kept their foot on the accelerator in last week’s blowout win, running 62 plays, attempting 42 passes, and rushing only 20 times en route to 33 points, all scored by the offense.
The defense also made game-changing plays, recording seven sacks and forcing four turnovers. Their ability to wreak havoc can do wonders for their offense’s scoring potential. And, of course, Arlington’s defense scored two touchdowns but also allowed 20 points last week. The Renegades’ boom-or-bust defense could be a boon for this game shooting out.
Sadly, the recent history of spring football doesn’t support betting the over when taking a macro view. For instance, seven of 12 games in Week 2 in the AAF (2019), XFL (2020) and USFL (2022) went under this game’s total of 40.0 points. However, two of the occasions when the score went over involved the Renegades and Roughnecks, and Stoops and Smith are still involved with those teams. As a result, gamblers shouldn’t be too concerned about the Week 2 results in recent spring leagues, as these teams can light up the scoreboard. So, gamblers should hop on this game’s over for 40.0 points.
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