XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (2023)
The Super Bowl put a bow on the NFL season last week, and the XFL is wasting no time filling in professional football needs for fans. Will the XFL teams hit the ground running? A look at the recent history of spring football leagues suggests it won’t be smooth sailing for everyone. However, the totals at DraftKings Sportsbook are reasonable and seem to factor in that data. This specific pair of totals are exciting wagering options in Week 1.
Check the rest of our XFL Odds, Picks & Predictions for Week 1:
XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (2023)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Orlando Guardians at Houston Roughnecks Over 35.5 Points (-120)
Before looking at this game’s total, looking back at Week 1 totals in the AAF (2019), XFL (2020) and USFL (2022) are worthwhile. According to Football Database, Week 1 in the AAF totals were 21, 26, 46 and 58. The average was 37.75, and the median was 36 points. In the XFL in 2020, the totals were 24, 26, 50 and 54, yielding an average and median of 38.5 and 38 points, respectively. Finally, the first-week totals in the USFL were 20, 29, 40 and 52, producing an average of 35.25 and a median of 34.5 points. In all, the average was 37.2, and the median was 34.5 points.
Precisely six games went over 35.5 points in Week 1 in the AAF, XFL and USFL. So, that’s a coin flip. The average and median were over 35.5 points in the AAF and XFL before both fell short in Week 1 in the USFL last year. However, I trust the Roughnecks to push the pace and tilt the game toward the over. Houston’s offensive coordinator AJ Smith was in the same position in the organization in the XFL, and the Roughnecks exploded for a Week 1-high 37 points in 2020. The game’s total was 54 points, the highest of the week. Houston was also the XFL’s highest-scoring team.
Smith’s offense was quarterback-friendly, and P.J. Walker thrived. Can Brandon Silvers, Cole McDonald or Kaleb Eleby mimic Walker’s success? Maybe. Paxton Lynch, Eli Rogers and Cody Latimer were highlighted in Josh Lewin’s XFL South Division Preview for the Guardians and might be moderately familiar names for NFL fans. Lynch also flashed some potential in the USFL last year. They should have enough on offense to chip in toward the over.
Seattle Sea Dragons at DC Defenders Over 35.5 Points (-110)
Smith wasn’t the only one who had a hand in Houston’s offensive outburst in Week 1 and through the entire shortened 2020 XFL season. Run-and-Shoot expert and longtime offensive guru June Jones was the club’s head coach. Now, he’s the offensive coordinator for the Sea Dragons.
Seattle’s offense is led by dual-threat signal-caller Ben DiNucci and will frequently utilize four wide receivers, headlined by Josh Gordon. As Cody Main of Establish the Run tweeted, Jones ran a pass-happy offense in the XFL in 2020.
College football fans of a certain age will undoubtedly also remember his high-flying offenses in Hawaii. Seattle should do their part to help push this game’s total over 35.5 points.
Meanwhile, the Defenders are also led by a dual-threat quarterback, Jordan Ta’amu. Ta’amu was in the XFL in 2020 and the USFL last year, making him a grizzled veteran in spring football. He led the Tampa Bay Bandits to 17 points in the USFL in Week 1 and guided the St. Louis BattleHawks to 15 points in their opener in 2020. Unfortunately, the scoring left something to be desired in Ta’amu’s openers. However, the BattleHawks scored at least 23 points in three of his five games in 2020, and the Bandits exploded for at least 27 points three times in his starts. The bar isn’t high for DiNucci and Ta’amu to clear for this game to go over its total. So, I’ll put my faith in them and Jones’s Run-and-Shoot offense going over 35.5 points.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.