XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 6 (2023)
The first two games in Week 6 are on Saturday, leaving Sunday and Monday for the final two XFL contests this week. The San Antonio Brahmas and Arlington Renegades will meet in a rematch of last week’s low-scoring affair. Meanwhile, the Houston Roughnecks will attempt to rebound from their first loss of the season against the last remaining undefeated team, the DC Defenders.
XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 6 (2023)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arlington Renegades vs. San Antonio Brahmas
The Renegades won an ugly, low-scoring affair against the Brahmas in Week 5, defeating them 12-10. Now, Arlington will host their South Division foes in the rematch. The game’s final margin of just two points suggests the Renegades squeaked out the win.
However, while Arlington wasn’t dominant, they held advantages across the board. The Renegades gained 253 total yards at 4.1 yards per play, had 18 first downs, converted half of their third downs, committed seven penalties and forced three turnovers. Meanwhile, the Brahmas mustered 181 total yards at 3.6 yards per play, had 13 first downs, converted only 20.0% of their third downs, committed seven penalties and forced only one turnover.
Additionally, Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded the Renegades ahead of the Brahmas in overall grade and defense. The Brahmas have a higher PFF grade on offense than the Renegades, though. Unfortunately, San Antonio’s offense had scored just 29 points in their previous three games combined, and changing the offensive coordinator before last week’s game didn’t turn things around. Moreover, Reid Sinnett flashed some potential before leaving the game with an injury. Sinnett will miss the rest of the year with a broken foot, and Jack Coan had only seven completions for 42 yards and two interceptions on 15 attempts last week after relieving Sinnett.
Betting on the under for 33.0 points is compelling. Yet, taking last week’s victor at home in the rematch is a more exciting selection at a palatable -165 moneyline.
Pick: Arlington Renegades Moneyline (-165)
Houston Roughnecks at DC Defenders
The Roughnecks lost their first game of the year last Thursday night in Seattle against the surging Sea Dragons. Fortunately, they’ll have a long layoff before playing Monday night against the undefeated Defenders. The break can be a faux bye for the Roughnecks before facing the ground-and-pound Defenders.
The Defenders have attempted the fewest passes (109) and the most rushes (188) in the XFL. Will that be a recipe for success this week against the Roughnecks? It might not be. Houston’s allowed only 309 rushing yards at 3.55 yards per carry and one touchdown to non-quarterbacks this year. In addition, PFF grades the Roughnecks as the third-best run defense and the best overall defense.
On the flip side, DC has allowed the most passing yards (1,222) in the XFL, and the Roughnecks are a pass-happy team. Houston’s attempted the second-most passes (187) in the league. The expression styles make fights is often used in combat sports, such as boxing and mixed martial arts. Yet, it’s apt for this football game. The well-rested Roughnecks are PFF’s highest-graded club and have the best point differential, outscoring their opponents by 60 points. The Defenders have outscored their opponents by 44 points. DC’s home-field advantage won’t make it an easy assignment for the Roughnecks, but Houston appears to be the superior team. It was tempting to take the 2.5 points, but betting them as outright winners at a plus line was too compelling to pass up.
Pick: Houston Roughnecks Moneyline (+125)
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.