XFL Championship Game Over/Under Picks: Defenders vs. Renegades (2023)
The XFL Championship Game has arrived. The Defenders lost only one game all year. Conversely, the Renegades peaked at the right time, reaching the postseason with a 4-6 record. These two clubs put on an entertaining, high-scoring showing in Week 9. Can they repeat the offensive explosion? Or will the game be a defensive slugfest?
XFL Championship Game Over/Under Prediction: Defenders vs. Renegades (2023)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
DC Defenders vs. Arlington Renegades
The Defenders were the magic ingredient for shootouts this year. Their game totals were just 40 and 24 points in the first two games of the year. After that, however, the totals were 62, 50, 48, 63, 73, 67, 54, 57 and 58 points. So, from Week 3 through the North Division Championship Game, DC’s games averaged 59.1 points, and the median was 58 points.
DC’s offensive prowess earned them Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) highest offensive grade. Yet, their lousy defense netted them PFF’s third-lowest defensive grade.
The Renegades struggled mightily offensively most of the year. They were the XFL’s lowest-scoring offense in the regular season. They’ve scored only 172 points this year, including the South Division Championship Game. Furthermore, their defense was stingy and earned PFF’s second-best defensive grade.
Fortunately, Arlington’s offense received a jolt after trading for spring football veteran Luis Perez. The seasoned signal caller made his first start for the Renegades in Week 8 against the Guardians. Arlington scored only 18 points. However, in three subsequent games, they lit the Defenders up for 26 in an eventual overtime loss, dipped to just nine points in a meaningless contest in Week 10 and erupted for a season-high 26 in the playoffs. So, Perez has led the Renegades to precisely 26 points in two of their previous three games.
Interestingly, Arlington’s defensive performance was less consistent as the offense found its footing. They held Houston’s struggling offense to just 11 points in the playoffs. However, they permitted 25 points to the Roughnecks in Week 10 and 28 to the Defenders in Week 9. In addition, their typically stout run defense showed some chinks in the armor against the Roughnecks, something DC’s prodigious running attack might be able to exploit.
The game’s total of 48.0 points might look high when considering Arlington’s offensive struggles most of the year. But their recent performance and DC’s season-long penchant for playing in shootouts make the over an exciting bet for the XFL Championship Game.
Pick: Over 48.0 Points (-110)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.