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XFL Week 3 Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday)

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Here are our top picks for Week 3 of the XFL. Check out our best bets for each of the three Week 3 XFL Sunday games.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Sunday:

XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 3 (2023)

Arlington Renegades vs. Orlando Guardians

The Renegades had a thrilling comeback win in Week 1 and faltered in Week 2. They have a golden rebound matchup this week against the inept Guardians. The hosts are the largest betting favorites of the young XFL season.

It might feel uncomfortable laying 8.5 points, but the Guardians cannot keep pace. They were beaten 33-12 in Week 1 by the Roughnecks and 30-12 in Week 2 by the Brahmas. As a result, they have the two most lopsided losses of the year. Yikes.

The Guardians have scored an XFL-low 24 points and allowed a season-high 63 points. Their ineptitude can best be summed up by making no effort to score a touchdown on their final drive of the first half, despite having nearly a minute, three timeouts and starting on their 31-yard line. Instead, they lazily moved the ball into position to attempt a 56-yard field goal that fell woefully short.

Meanwhile, Arlington scored 22 points in Week 1 against the Vipers and mustered 14 in Week 2 against the Roughnecks. Arlington hasn’t looked like a team capable of blowing anyone out. However, the Guardians have made their opponents look like a million bucks. Houston scored 10 more points in Week 1 against Orlando than in Week 2 against Arlington, and San Antonio averaged 15 more points in Week 2 against the Guardians than in Week 1 against the Battlehawks.

Finally, the betting information in the 2020 XFL and this year’s version was encouraging for laying 8.5 points. The 2020 version of the XFL had similar but not identical rules. Nevertheless, the average margin of victory was 12.9, and the median was 9.0 points. This year, those marks were 8.9 and 10.5 points, respectively. Therefore, betting on the favorite is enticing.

Arlington Renegades -8.5 Points (-110)

San Antonio Brahmas at Houston Roughnecks

The Roughnecks have picked up where they left off after a 5-0 campaign in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. They’ve scored the most points (56) and allowed the second-fewest points (26) in the league this year. Moreover, they haven’t played flawless football.

The Roughnecks had two turnovers in a 21-point victory in Week 1 and three in a nine-point win in Week 2. However, the best might be yet to come. Houston’s defense has been nothing short of spectacular, though. They’ve recorded 12 sacks and forced six turnovers. As a result, Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded the Roughnecks first in pressure and coverage.

Despite their faults, the pass-happy offense has produced a league-high 56 points, 11 more than the second-highest mark. The Roughnecks should do their part to help the game go over 36.5 points. Additionally, the totals in the 2020 XFL and through two weeks this year were promising for betting on the over. The average and median totals in 2020 were 41.0 and 40.5 points. They’ve been 37.6 and 39.0 points this year, and six of eight games had more than 36.5 points this year. Conveniently, the Brahmas are the second-highest scoring team in the league, making the over an exciting bet.

The Brahmas lost their opener 18-15 before rebounding in a beatdown of the Guardians. They’ve been less impressive than the Roughnecks, though. In addition, the margins of victory support laying the points if you’re backing the favorite. Four of eight games this year were decided by more than four points, one was by precisely four and three were by less than four. During the 2020 XFL season, only one victor won by less than four points, one by four points and the other 18 winners beat their opposition by more than four. So, I’m not only betting this game goes over but also picking the Roughnecks to cover the spread.

Houston Roughnecks -4.0 Points (-110)

Over 36.5 Points (-110)

St. Louis Battlehawks vs. D.C. Defenders

While the first matchup this week is between a pair of 0-2 teams, the second contest is much better. The Battlehawks are 2-0 this season, with two close victories. They won 18-15 in Week 1 over the San Antonio Brahmas and 20-18 last week against the Seattle Dragons. Quarterback A.J. McCarron has been one of the top players two weeks into the year. The former Alabama star is third in the league in completion percentage (64.5%), passing yards (374) and passing touchdowns (three). He also has the Battlehawks' only rushing touchdown this season.

Meanwhile, the Defenders also have a 2-0 record this season. They won the Week 1 matchup 22-18 over the Seattle Sea Dragon. The Defenders then had an impressive 18-6 win over the Vegas Wipers in Week 2. While D.C. hasn't gotten the same level of quarterback play as St. Louis, the Defenders have an impressive running game. Abram Smith (99), Ryquell Armstead (88) and Jordan Ta'amu (77) all rank in the top five in rushing yards this year.

These two teams join the Houston Roughnecks as the only undefeated teams in the XFL. More importantly, the Battlehawks, Defenders and Roughnecks are the only three teams to score 18 or more points in both games this season. Yet, this matchup has the second-lowest over/under total in Week 3. Betting the over is an easy call.

Over 36.5 (-110)

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.


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