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XFL Week 4 Best Odds, Bets & Picks (2023)

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The XFL is back for another weekend of football action! Let’s take a look at our top picks and predictions for each of this weekend’s four XFL games.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 4

Saturday

Houston Roughnecks vs. Orlando Guardians

The Roughnecks have been the best team in the XFL this season, posting a 3-0 record. Furthermore, they are the only team in the league to have double-digit offensive touchdowns this season. Not only is Houston undefeated, but they've done it convincingly. They have won all three contests by at least nine points, including a 21-point victory in Week 1. More importantly, the Roughnecks are the only team in the XFL to score 20 or more points in every game this season. Meanwhile, they have held their opponents to only 13 points per game, surrendering 14 or fewer in every contest.

While the Roughnecks have the second-best odds to win this year's championship at +250, the Guardians have the longest odds at +2500. However, that's not surprising, given their struggles over the first three weeks this season. Orlando is 0-3 this year and has struggled on offense. They have only five offensive touchdowns this year, the second-fewest in the XFL. The Guardians are the only team in the XFL not to score 20 or more points in a game this season. Furthermore, they have averaged only 11 points per game, scoring 12 or fewer in every contest.

This game is a David vs. Goliath matchup. However, don't expect the underdog to win. Houston has consistently scored 20 or more points per game, while Orlando has scored 33 total points this season. If this matchup isn’t a 20-point blowout, I will be surprised.

Roughnecks -9 (-110)

San Antonio Brahmas vs. Seattle Sea Dragons

The first matchup on Saturday is a battle between an elite team and an awful one. However, the second game should be a closer contest. San Antonio has a 1-2 record following their 22-13 loss against the Roughnecks last week. Yet, they've played well this season. The Brahmas have averaged 19.3 points per game this year, including 30 in their Week 2 victory over the Guardians. Meanwhile, San Antonio has held their opponents to 17.3 points per game this season.

Meanwhile, the Sea Dragons finally got their first win of the year last week. They defeated the Vegas Vipers 30-26, giving them a 1-2 record for the season. While they have a losing record, Seattle hasn't struggled to score points. The Sea Dragons have averaged 22 points per game this season, scoring at least 18 in every matchup. Meanwhile, their problems have come on defense. Opposing teams have averaged 22.7 points per game against Seattle this year, scoring 20 or more in every matchup.

These two teams have had fairly high-scoring matchups every week this year. The total points scored in the three San Antonio games this season have averaged 36.6 points per contest. Meanwhile, the total has been an average of 44.7 points in the three Seattle games this season. Combined, these two teams have averaged an over/under total of 40.7 points this year. In a matchup between two 1-2 teams, it's hard to predict a winner. Instead, bettors should take the over.

Over 40.5 (-110)

Sunday

St. Louis Battlehawks -4.0 Points (-110) vs. Arlington Renegades

The Battlehawks are playing their first home game of the 2023 season. The juices should flow in front of the home crowd in a battle of 2-1 teams. The home-field advantage has been kind to teams this year. Clubs have gone 7-5 in home games, outscoring the visitors 243-230. Yet, the overall record doesn’t provide the perfect context. The winless Vipers and winless Guardians have contributed three losses to the ledger.

Additionally, St. Louis has been the more impressive of the two-win teams in this matchup. First, Pro Football Focus (PFF) has graded the Battlehawks as the best passing team. They’ve wisely leaned on NFL veteran A.J. McCarron, attempting 104 passes versus only 58 rushes. The hosts have the most impressive wins, too. St. Louis beat the Brahmas in Week 1, turned around, and won a road tilt against the high-flying Sea Dragons in Week 2. Their only loss was a six-point loss to undefeated DC.

Meanwhile, Arlington’s two wins have come by a combined three points at home against winless Vegas in Week 1 and winless Orlando in Week 3. Yikes. They escaped by the skin of their teeth against the laughingstocks of the XFL. They were trounced by nine points in their only road game of the young season against the undefeated Roughnecks.

Arlington has the second-fewest pass attempts (77), fewest yards per pass attempt (4.7) and the second-lowest Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade. Sadly, a quarterback switch to Kyle Sloter didn’t cure what ailed their passing attack last week. Their rushing attack is pitiful, as well. Arlington has the fourth-most rushing attempts (77) but the fewest yards per carry (2.5). No other team has averaged fewer than 3.0 yards per carry, with the second-lowest mark checking in at 3.2.

Finally, Arlington’s defensive strength is defending the run. PFF grades them as the best run defense. However, their strength won’t help them much against St. Louis’s pass-first attack. As a result, the Battlehawks should win and might cover the 4.0-point spread. Yet, a parlay combining a bet from this contest and one from the next game is my preferred approach to betting Sunday’s games.

DC Defenders -6.0 Points (-115) vs. Vegas Vipers

DC’s formula for success is simple. They’ve used their mobile quarterbacks and talented running backs to take the air out of the ball and wear down opponents. They’re first in the XFL in rush attempts (114), rushing yards (449), 10-plus-yard rushes (13), 20-plus-yard rushes (two) and rushing touchdowns (five). Conversely, they’re dead last in pass attempts (69).

They’ve won their three games by four, 12 and six points. They seemed to have found their identity entirely in the last two weeks, and the results have been encouraging.

The visiting Vipers have a balanced offense, attempting 87 passes and 66 rushes. The approach hasn’t yielded many points since they’re sixth in scoring (52 points). The defense has also let them down, allowing the second-most points (70). Vegas has earned a dreadful PFF mark for tackling and their lowest run defense grade. Vegas’s struggles against the run will likely be their undoing against DC in a rematch from Week 2.

DC got the better of Vegas in the desert during a rainy and windy contest winning 18-6. The game’s low score and final tally should be taken with a grain of salt because of the abysmal weather. Nevertheless, DC won convincingly and can shove it down the visitor’s throats again this week. DC should win, and a 6.0-point spread isn’t outrageous. Nevertheless, gamblers can get +121 odds on a two-leg moneyline parlay when betting the Battlehawks and DC to win. So, instead of laying the points, my favorite bet is a two-leg moneyline parlay with Sunday’s favorites.

Parlay: STL and DC two-leg moneyline parlay (+121)

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