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XFL Week 4 Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday)

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The weekend is chock full of XFL action. The contests are split down the middle, with two on Saturday and two concluding the week on Sunday. St. Louis hosts the Renegades at 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, and the Defenders welcome the Vipers for the weekend’s final game at 7:00 p.m. ET.

How should gamblers attack these two contests? The last contests of Week 4 are analyzed below and followed by my favorite bet for Sunday’s games.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Sunday:

XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 4 (2023)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

St. Louis Battlehawks -4.0 Points (-110) vs. Arlington Renegades

The Battlehawks are playing their first home game of the 2023 season. The juices should flow in front of the home crowd in a battle of 2-1 teams. The home-field advantage has been kind to teams this year. Clubs have gone 7-5 in home games, outscoring the visitors 243-230. Yet, the overall record doesn’t provide the perfect context. The winless Vipers and winless Guardians have contributed three losses to the ledger.

Additionally, St. Louis has been the more impressive of the two-win teams in this matchup. First, Pro Football Focus (PFF) has graded the Battlehawks as the best passing team. They’ve wisely leaned on NFL veteran A.J. McCarron, attempting 104 passes versus only 58 rushes. The hosts have the most impressive wins, too. St. Louis beat the Brahmas in Week 1, turned around, and won a road tilt against the high-flying Sea Dragons in Week 2. Their only loss was a six-point loss to undefeated DC.

Meanwhile, Arlington’s two wins have come by a combined three points at home against winless Vegas in Week 1 and winless Orlando in Week 3. Yikes. They escaped by the skin of their teeth against the laughingstocks of the XFL. They were trounced by nine points in their only road game of the young season against the undefeated Roughnecks.

Arlington has the second-fewest pass attempts (77), fewest yards per pass attempt (4.7) and the second-lowest Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade. Sadly, a quarterback switch to Kyle Sloter didn’t cure what ailed their passing attack last week. Their rushing attack is pitiful, as well. Arlington has the fourth-most rushing attempts (77) but the fewest yards per carry (2.5). No other team has averaged fewer than 3.0 yards per carry, with the second-lowest mark checking in at 3.2.

Finally, Arlington’s defensive strength is defending the run. PFF grades them as the best run defense. However, their strength won’t help them much against St. Louis’s pass-first attack. As a result, the Battlehawks should win and might cover the 4.0-point spread. Yet, a parlay combining a bet from this contest and one from the next game is my preferred approach to betting Sunday’s games.

DC Defenders -6.0 Points (-115) vs. Vegas Vipers

DC’s formula for success is simple. They’ve used their mobile quarterbacks and talented running backs to take the air out of the ball and wear down opponents. They’re first in the XFL in rush attempts (114), rushing yards (449), 10-plus-yard rushes (13), 20-plus-yard rushes (two) and rushing touchdowns (five). Conversely, they’re dead last in pass attempts (69).

They’ve won their three games by four, 12 and six points. They seemed to have found their identity entirely in the last two weeks, and the results have been encouraging.

The visiting Vipers have a balanced offense, attempting 87 passes and 66 rushes. The approach hasn’t yielded many points since they’re sixth in scoring (52 points). The defense has also let them down, allowing the second-most points (70). Vegas has earned a dreadful PFF mark for tackling and their lowest run defense grade. Vegas’s struggles against the run will likely be their undoing against DC in a rematch from Week 2.

DC got the better of Vegas in the desert during a rainy and windy contest winning 18-6. The game’s low score and final tally should be taken with a grain of salt because of the abysmal weather. Nevertheless, DC won convincingly and can shove it down the visitor’s throats again this week. DC should win, and a 6.0-point spread isn’t outrageous. Nevertheless, gamblers can get +121 odds on a two-leg moneyline parlay when betting the Battlehawks and DC to win. So, instead of laying the points, my favorite bet is a two-leg moneyline parlay with Sunday’s favorites.

Parlay: STL and DC two-leg moneyline parlay (+121)

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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