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XFL Week 5 Betting Picks & Predictions (2023)

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The spread of XFL games is vast in Week 5. The final two games of the week are the Orlando Guardians at the Vegas Vipers at 10:00 p.m. ET on Saturday and the Arlington Renegades at the San Antonio Brahmas at 9:00 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Sadly, the two contests feature the four worst teams in the league. Thankfully, having some action on them through DraftKings Sportsbook can enhance the watching experience.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 5 (2023)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

D.C. Defenders vs. St. Louis Battlehawks: Defenders -2 (-110)

While the Roughnecks have been the best team in the XFL this year, the Defenders are right behind them. The Defenders are 4-0 this season, including a 14-point win over the Vipers last week. Furthermore, D.C. has won by an average of nine points per game this season. The Defenders have been the most dominant team on the ground, scoring seven rushing touchdowns through the first four weeks. By comparison, the rest of the league has 15 rushing touchdowns combined this season, including six teams with two or fewer.

Meanwhile, the Battlehawks have a 3-1 record this season. The Battlehawks’ only loss was in Week 3 to the Defenders, 34-28. St. Louis won their other three by an average of six points per game. However, two of those victories were by three or fewer points. Unlike the Defenders, the Battlehawks have one of the better passing attacks in the XFL. They are second in passing touchdowns this season with nine, while quarterback A.J. McCarron is third in the XFL with 850 passing yards.

St. Louis could give D.C. their first loss of the season on Saturday. This matchup will be a close contest. However, the Defenders can control the clock and run their opponents out of the building. While I don't have the most confidence in this pick, I'm taking the Defenders minus the points.

Orlando Guardians +7.5 Points (-110) at Vegas Vipers

The Guardians and Vipers meet in a battle of the defeated. Neither team has won, going a combined 0-8. The Guardians have scored the fewest points (49) and allowed the most (117). Yet, the Vipers haven’t been great either, allowing the second-most points (102) and scoring just 70. Furthermore, Vegas scored more than 20 points only once, hanging 26 on the Sea Dragons in Week 3 before dipping to 18 last week.

Orlando also, unfortunately, faced the Roughnecks twice. Houston has been a juggernaut this season. The Vipers lost twice to the undefeated DC Defenders, too. However, Houston was more impressive than DC through four weeks, and Pro Football Focus (PFF) agrees. PFF grades the Roughnecks as the best overall team in the XFL and the Defenders as third. Predictably, the Vipers (seventh) and Guardians (eighth) bring up the rear. The Vipers have home field advantage and should win.

Nonetheless, Rod Woodson is in over his skis as Vegas’s head coach. The Vipers don’t appear capable of beating anyone convincingly, even the lowly Guardians. So, gamblers should take the points.

San Antonio Brahmas vs. Arlington Renegades Under 35.5 (-110) vs. Vegas Vipers

The game totals for Week 5 are 41.5, 42.0, 42.0 and 35.5 points. This week, the Brahmas and Renegades are in their own class for projected scoring futility. Yet, the low total is for a good reason. Both offenses are lousy.

The game totals for Arlington this year were 42, 37, 19 and 35 points, putting them under 35.5 points twice in four games. However, Arlington’s averaged only 14.25 points, with a median of 12.5 points.

Meanwhile, San Antonio’s game totals were 33, 42, 35 and 21 points. Thus, their games have gone under this week’s total three times in four contests. The Brahmas are averaging 16.0 points per game, with a median of 14.0 points per game. The club’s offensive ineptitude prompted head coach Hines Ward to switch offensive coordinators and open up competition at the quarterback position. Maybe, the coordinator shakeup will provide a spark. That seems unlikely, though.

Finally, the Brahmas (4.8 yards per play) and Renegades (4.7 yards per play) are the only teams averaging less than 5.6 yards per play this season. As a result, points will likely be hard to come by. The under is an excellent bet.

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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